Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST, BUT ALL IS QUIET IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS HOUR. EVENING
SOUNDING FROM OLD HICKORY GIVES A LIFTED INDEX OF -4.6, WITH A
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 1386 J/KG. ATMOSPHERE IS A
TAD DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST 1.20 INCHES AND WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, BUT THAT CAN ALWAYS
CHANGE.

VARIOUS SURFACE ANALYSES AT 01Z SHOW A BULLSEYE OF -10 LIFTED
INDICES CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH GREATEST
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING FROM NASHVILLE WESTWARD. MEANWHILE,
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC SHOWS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MODERATE RISK
CREEPING INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR INCLUDE MENTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER, BUT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE
ACTUAL FORECAST. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW PEAK TIME FOR OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AROUND 09Z, SO BELIEVE IT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER THE MID STATE.

.BNA...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ROSE

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-071030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MID-STATE AGAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE NOT ONLY ISOLATED TORNADOES
BUT EXTENDED HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED
TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOCALLY SEVERE WEATHER EACH OF THESE DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

07