Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 AM CDT WED APR 30 2003

IN NEAR TERM PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DURING MRNG HOURS WITH
STRONG POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION OVER WARM FRONT. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN ESPCLY FM ACROSS NE AND E CNTRL NEB INTO W CNTRL IA. WILL NOT
GO WITH FLOOD BUT CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH FFWS AND STAEMENTS AS
NEED. BASED ON EXPECTED POSITION OF FRONTAL BNDRY AND FORECAST CAPE
APPEARS NOW THAT MAIN CONCERN FOR SVR WEATHER THREAT DURING AFTN AND
EVE HOURS MAY BE SHIFTING MORE TOWARD SE NEB AND SW IA. AFTER FIRST
PTN OF EVENING BNDRY SHIFTS SEWD WITH TSTMS POTENTIAL DIMINISHING
OVER ALL OF THE AREA AFT 06Z WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. COOLER THU WITH
SMALL CHC OF SHOWERS IN THU NRN ZONES IN COLD ADVECTION PATTERN AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS SWD ACROSS REGION THU
NITE INTO FRI FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITONS. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
DEVELOP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HOWEVER APPEARS MAIN POTENTIAL FOR NEXT
SGFNT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START MORE IN THE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN PERIOD AS NEXT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW MOVE
INTO NRN PLAINS INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION.

.OMA...NONE.

WIESE

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
540 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
NELIGH TO WAYNE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO WESTERN KANSAS BY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
LIFT MOIST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  AS A
RESULT...MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM YORK TO FREMONT TO
TEKAMAH... WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH WARM MOIST AND
VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TONIGHT IF SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

DEWALD