Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IN THE NEAR TERM.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LO NEAR SWRN NEB WITH WRMFNT
EXTENDING SEWD INTO SERN KS.  18Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWS DESCENT CAP AND
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF NEB
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  FNT WL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT MOVES NWD
INTO CNTRL NEB WHERE VERY LARGE CAPE VALUES EXIST AND CAP IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK LATER TODAY WITH FURTHER SFC HEATING.

ALL PARAMETER COME TOGETHER FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO
NERN NEB AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATER THIS EVENING AND THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES OVR ERN NEB.  SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN 50 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVR NERN NEB WITH PWS
NEARING 2.0 AND CORFIDI VECTORS SLOWING DOWN.  WL TAPER FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO LIKELYS NORTH.

TUESDAY GIVES US MUCH OF THE SAME THING WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND
RECEDING LLJ IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS COME
TOGETHER AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE LLJ
INCREASES IN STRENGTH.  AREA IN MOD RISK AGAIN DAY 2.

FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THRU BY WED EVENING AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST.  UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA BY THURSDAY AND WE THEN GET
INTO NWRLY FLOW WITH WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST.  WL KEEP DRY FORECAST
GOING FOR THE EXTENDED HOWEVER A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE RIDING
OVR WEAK RIDGE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME TSTMS BY LATE WEEKEND. TOO
EARLY TO TELL.

.OMA...NONE.

GRIFFIS

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
505 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO BLAIR.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION SO FAR. AS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS VERY UNSTABLE AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
846 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

840 PM     BLOOMFIELD                NE   .75 INCH HAIL
06/23/03   KNOX                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
909 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

900 PM     2 N ROYAL                 NE   TORNADO
06/23/03   ANTELOPE                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER, A BRIEF
                                          TORNADO TOUCH DOWN.

901 PM     FORDYCE                   NE   1.5 INCH HAIL
06/23/03   CEDAR                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
926 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

910 PM     FORDYCE                   NE   2 INCH HAIL
06/23/03   CEDAR                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
947 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

930 PM     CREIGHTON                 NE   WIND DAMAGE
06/23/03   KNOX                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN.

945 PM     6 W COLERIDGE             NE   TORNADO REPORTED
06/23/03   CEDAR                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1100 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1038 PM     2 S DUNCAN                NE   1 INCH HAIL
06/23/03    PLATTE                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                           SPOTTER.

1040 PM     3 S DUNCAN                NE   1 INCH HAIL
06/23/03    PLATTE                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                           SPOTTER.