Alert archive / Tennessee / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Morristown, TN
NWS Morristown, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 28, 2003, 7:32 PM EDT for 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 28, 2003, 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 2003, 8:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 43 min
- Issued by
- NWS Morristown, TN
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Bradley County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Polk County, TN
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1388 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 903 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
210 WUUS54 KMRX 282332 SVRMRX TNC011-107-123-139-290015- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 732 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BRADLEY COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE POLK COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE * UNTIL 815 PM EDT * AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TARIFFVILLE TO MCDONALD...OR FROM 10 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEVELAND... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... TELLICO PLAINS AROUND 745 PM EDT RELIANCE AROUND 750 PM EDT CITICO AROUND 755 PM EDT OCOEE DAM NUMBER 1 AROUND 800 PM EDT GAP SPRINGS AROUND 805 PM EDT CONASAUGA AROUND 810 PM EDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING... WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...WHICH COULD PUSH OVER SHALLOW ROOTED TREES AND BREAK TREE LIMBS ABOUT THE SIZE OF YOUR WRIST. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...OR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. LAT...LON 3563 8416 3514 8504 3488 8466 3546 8396 $$ TG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 28, 3:25 PM EDT, 4 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 3:25 PM EDT, 4 hours 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 325 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED SINCE 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF AN UPPER JET PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT...FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR TWO INCHES) WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT WITH TRAINING TSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ETA MOVES COOL FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT. ETA MODEL SHIFTS FRONT NORTH AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL DRYING...BUT A 12 HOUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BRINGS FRONT SLOWLY NORTH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE ETA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO BROUGHT BACK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO ETA AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCSTID = CHA 71 86 70 89 / 70 70 40 30 TYS 71 85 68 88 / 70 70 20 20 TRI 68 81 63 85 / 70 70 20 20 OQT 69 83 68 87 / 70 70 20 20 .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. DMG/TD ********************************************************************* LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1015 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS KENTUCKY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY INDICATE A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO RAISE POPS A LITTLE AND TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL GENERALLY NOT CHANGE. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. DMG ****************************************************************** EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 UPR LVL TROFFING WILL AFFECT THE FA AGAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS S/WV ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIVE SE THRU MIDWEST STATES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG CD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROF JUST N OF THE OH RVR. MODELS DEPICT A BETTER CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS SW VA/NE TN AS MASS OF SHRA/TSRA BUILD SE TWD NRN SECTIONS OF KY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO SW VA/NE TN BY MID DAY WITH DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW INTO THE NRN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO USED HIGHEST POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHC POP FOR REMAINDER OF FA THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES AHD OF CD FNT. MAIN EVENT PROGGED FOR TONITE AS FNT DROPS INTO FA AND RAISED POP TO 70 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. FNT WILL BE A SLOW MOVER THRU SRN PORTION OF FA AND MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THRU FA UNTIL TUE EVENING AS MORE S/WV ENERGY PRESSES SE ARND BASE OF UPR TROF. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POP GOING FOR NRN AREAS ON TUE WITH BETTER PROBS ACROSS SE TN/SW NC INTO TUE EVENING. BOUNDARY SHOULD BE S OF FA BY WED AND WILL KEEP FCST DRY UNTIL LATE WED/EARLY THU AM AS ANOTHER WAVE TRIES TO PULL WM FNT BACK INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS EDGING MAXES BACK A BIT. CHA 90 72 86 69 / 30 70 50 30 TYS 88 70 84 66 / 40 70 40 10 TRI 86 66 82 61 / 50 70 30 10 OQT 88 70 83 66 / 40 70 40 10 ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 915 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2003 RADAR INDICATING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET ACROSS OUR AREA. ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. WILL UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...SO NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. GH *********************************************************************
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 28, 2:30 PM EDT, 5 hours 2 minutes before
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005- 006-008-291000- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 230 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE (TODAY)... A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...AS THIS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX. DMG
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 28, 6:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
615 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003
TIME(EDT) .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0515 PM 10NE LA FOLLETTE TN WIND DAMAGE
07/28/03 CAMPBELL SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON OLD
HIGHWAY 63 IN THE WELL
SPRING AREA. REPORTED BY
LAW ENORCEMENT TO THE
SHERIFFS DISPATCH.The office that day
Everything else NWS Morristown, TN issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 5:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Campbell, Claiborne, Union | 36 min |
| Jul 28, 5:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Bledsoe, Sequatchie | 42 min |
| Jul 28, 7:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Marion | 43 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.