Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
325 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT
GENERALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULDNT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED SINCE 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF AN UPPER JET PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SLOW MOVING
FRONT...FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR TWO INCHES) WILL LIKELY
CREATE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT WITH TRAINING
TSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ETA MOVES COOL FRONT THROUGH FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT. ETA MODEL
SHIFTS FRONT NORTH AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
DRYING...BUT A 12 HOUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS DRIER AIR IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL BRINGS FRONT SLOWLY NORTH ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE ETA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST LATE FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SO BROUGHT BACK A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO ETA AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH WITH CHANCE SOUTH AND THEN INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF
AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FCSTID =
CHA   71  86  70  89 /  70  70  40  30
TYS   71  85  68  88 /  70  70  20  20
TRI   68  81  63  85 /  70  70  20  20
OQT   69  83  68  87 /  70  70  20  20

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DMG/TD
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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
1015 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS KENTUCKY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY INDICATE A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THIS FRONT
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO RAISE POPS A LITTLE
AND TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
WILL GENERALLY NOT CHANGE.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DMG

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

UPR LVL TROFFING WILL AFFECT THE FA AGAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS S/WV ENERGY CONTINUES TO DRIVE SE THRU MIDWEST STATES THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG CD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
TROF JUST N OF THE OH RVR. MODELS DEPICT A BETTER CHC OF PRECIP
ACROSS SW VA/NE TN AS MASS OF SHRA/TSRA BUILD SE TWD NRN SECTIONS OF
KY. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT TO SW VA/NE TN BY MID DAY
WITH DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW INTO THE NRN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SO USED HIGHEST POPS FOR THESE AREAS WITH LOW TO MEDIUM
CHC POP FOR REMAINDER OF FA THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT GRADUALLY
INCREASES AHD OF CD FNT. MAIN EVENT PROGGED FOR TONITE AS FNT DROPS
INTO FA AND RAISED POP TO 70 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. FNT WILL BE A SLOW
MOVER THRU SRN PORTION OF FA AND MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THRU FA
UNTIL TUE EVENING AS MORE S/WV ENERGY PRESSES SE ARND BASE OF UPR
TROF. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POP GOING FOR NRN AREAS ON TUE
WITH BETTER PROBS ACROSS SE TN/SW NC INTO TUE EVENING. BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE S OF FA BY WED AND WILL KEEP FCST DRY UNTIL LATE WED/EARLY
THU AM AS ANOTHER WAVE TRIES TO PULL WM FNT BACK INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS EDGING MAXES
BACK A BIT.

CHA   90  72  86  69 /  30  70  50  30
TYS   88  70  84  66 /  40  70  40  10
TRI   86  66  82  61 /  50  70  30  10
OQT   88  70  83  66 /  40  70  40  10

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
915 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2003

RADAR INDICATING MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET
ACROSS OUR AREA.  ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT.  WILL UPDATE TO DROP MENTION OF PRECIP
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...SO NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED.

GH

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NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY)...

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SAME GENERAL AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...AS
THIS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG