Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

.DISCUSSION...INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE STEERING FLOW WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT INLAND
DRIFT. A CAUTIOUS EYE WILL BE KEPT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE TRANSITIONAL TREND WILL CALL FOR
THE RIDGE TO MIGRATE FARTHER SOUTH BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO A
MORE UNIFORM LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

TUE/WED...AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH OF AREA
TUESDAY...TRANSITION TO LIGHT SW STEERING FLOW AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE PROMINENT SLOW-MOVING SEA/LAKE
BOUNDARIES AND AN UPWARD TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
IN ADDITION...AS TUTT LOW OVER CUBA DRIFTS WEST...INCREASED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/MOISTURE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS PENINSULA. INVERTED TROUGH
EAST OF BAHAMAS SHOULD WORK AROUND BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL POPS TUE/WED...WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF
COASTAL CWA RELATIVE TO INLAND AREAS...AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE WEAKER/NON-EXISTENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS AND OF COURSE CG
LIGHTNING. WILL NUDGE COASTAL MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH
LIGHT/OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW.

THU/FRI...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL PENINSULA AGAIN WITH RATHER UNIFORM CLIMO POP COVERAGE...
AGAIN LIKELY FAVORING THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE DURING THE
EVENINGS...WHERE SLIGHT SW FLOW MAY PREVAIL ALOFT.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
ORIENTATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL VERY
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND LOSE AMPLITUDE. SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WILL AGAIN RETREAT NORTHWARD...TO A POSITION
NORTH OF CWA BY LATE SUNDAY. RESULT WILL BE FOR A SHIFT OF DIURNAL
RAINFALL CONCENTRATION TOWARD THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ONCE
AGAIN. DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROUGH...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOT LATCH ONTO ANY ENHANCED
MOISTURE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF BERMUDA HIGH. IN
FACT...NEXT TUTT LOW MAY ACT TO LOWER MID/UPPER MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
LATE WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT COMMIT YET. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... MAINLY LATE
MORNINGS/AFTERNOONS EAST COAST...AND FAVORING THE INTERIOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOONS.

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES DAILY AND MINIMAL SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS TRADE WIND FETCH HAS WEAKENED. MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...MAINLY NORTH OF ABOUT VRB.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 073/088 073/090 074 24354
MCO BB 074/092 074/092 074 34343
MLB BB 073/088 075/090 075 14353
VRB BB 074/089 075/089 076 14353

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT-TERM...SHARP
LONG-TERM...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
281600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THE CURRENT WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER INLAND SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS...AGAIN MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS. STORMS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER THE COASTAL
ZONE FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH TO MARTIN COUNTY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND A RESIDUAL OCEAN SWELL OF 2 TO
3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS TEND TO BE STRONGEST AND MOST COMMON DURING
THE OUTGOING TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR TODAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
STEERING WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND STEERING WINDS
WILL PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH
AND OR RAINFALL ABOVE 2 INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DWS

FLZ059-064-281930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LIGHTNING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
ALONG THE MARTIN PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF
INDIANTOWN. THIS STORM WAS A PART OF A CLUSTER OF LIGHTNING STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE INLAND FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

DECKER

FLZ141-281945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
303 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LIGHTNING STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF ORMOND BY THE SEA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THROUGH 4 PM ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY....MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. LARGE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS IN FLAGLER
COUNTY.

FLZ141-282100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN SOUTHEERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES WEST
OF EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STORM WILL PASS OVER RURAL SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...AFFECTING RURAL AREAS EAST OF LAKE ASHBY AND FARMTON
...AND MOVE TOWARDS MAYTOWN.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ141-282100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES WEST
OF EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STORM WILL PASS OVER RURAL SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...AFFECTING RURAL AREAS EAST OF LAKE ASHBY AND FARMTON
...AND MOVE TOWARDS MAYTOWN.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.