Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

.DISCUSSION...INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE STEERING FLOW WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT INLAND
DRIFT. A CAUTIOUS EYE WILL BE KEPT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE TRANSITIONAL TREND WILL CALL FOR
THE RIDGE TO MIGRATE FARTHER SOUTH BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO A
MORE UNIFORM LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

TUE/WED...AS RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH OF AREA
TUESDAY...TRANSITION TO LIGHT SW STEERING FLOW AND WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE PROMINENT SLOW-MOVING SEA/LAKE
BOUNDARIES AND AN UPWARD TREND TO PRECIP COVERAGE FROM RECENT DAYS.
IN ADDITION...AS TUTT LOW OVER CUBA DRIFTS WEST...INCREASED UPPER
DIVERGENCE/MOISTURE SHOULD WORK TOWARDS PENINSULA. INVERTED TROUGH
EAST OF BAHAMAS SHOULD WORK AROUND BERMUDA ANTICYCLONE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
DIURNAL POPS TUE/WED...WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PORTION OF
COASTAL CWA RELATIVE TO INLAND AREAS...AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
RETURN FLOW WILL BE WEAKER/NON-EXISTENT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS AND OF COURSE CG
LIGHTNING. WILL NUDGE COASTAL MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES WITH
LIGHT/OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW.

THU/FRI...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL PENINSULA AGAIN WITH RATHER UNIFORM CLIMO POP COVERAGE...
AGAIN LIKELY FAVORING THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE DURING THE
EVENINGS...WHERE SLIGHT SW FLOW MAY PREVAIL ALOFT.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
ORIENTATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL VERY
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND LOSE AMPLITUDE. SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WILL AGAIN RETREAT NORTHWARD...TO A POSITION
NORTH OF CWA BY LATE SUNDAY. RESULT WILL BE FOR A SHIFT OF DIURNAL
RAINFALL CONCENTRATION TOWARD THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ONCE
AGAIN. DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROUGH...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOT LATCH ONTO ANY ENHANCED
MOISTURE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF BERMUDA HIGH. IN
FACT...NEXT TUTT LOW MAY ACT TO LOWER MID/UPPER MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
LATE WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT COMMIT YET. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD... MAINLY LATE
MORNINGS/AFTERNOONS EAST COAST...AND FAVORING THE INTERIOR MID-LATE
AFTERNOONS.

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES DAILY AND MINIMAL SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS TRADE WIND FETCH HAS WEAKENED. MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...MAINLY NORTH OF ABOUT VRB.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 073/088 073/090 074 24354
MCO BB 074/092 074/092 074 34343
MLB BB 073/088 075/090 075 14353
VRB BB 074/089 075/089 076 14353

.MLB...NONE.

SHORT-TERM...SHARP
LONG-TERM...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
281600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THE CURRENT WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER INLAND SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON HEATING...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS...AGAIN MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS. STORMS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OVER THE COASTAL
ZONE FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH TO MARTIN COUNTY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND A RESIDUAL OCEAN SWELL OF 2 TO
3 FEET WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. RIP CURRENTS TEND TO BE STRONGEST AND MOST COMMON DURING
THE OUTGOING TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR TODAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHWEST
STEERING WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND STEERING WINDS
WILL PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON IF
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP...AND RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH
AND OR RAINFALL ABOVE 2 INCHES TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DWS

FLZ141-282100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN SOUTHEERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES WEST
OF EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STORM WILL PASS OVER RURAL SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...AFFECTING RURAL AREAS EAST OF LAKE ASHBY AND FARMTON
...AND MOVE TOWARDS MAYTOWN.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ141-282100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL IN SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES WEST
OF EDGEWATER...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STORM WILL PASS OVER RURAL SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...AFFECTING RURAL AREAS EAST OF LAKE ASHBY AND FARMTON
...AND MOVE TOWARDS MAYTOWN.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

FLZ045-046-053-144-282145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
453 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ORLANDO METRO AREA
THROUGH SUNSET...

AT 445 PM...BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES HAD PUSHED INTO
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD
FORMED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES...SPECIFICALLY OVER SOUTHWEST VOLUSIA
COUNTY IN THE EAST...AND OVER MARION AND SUMTER COUNTIES IN THE
WEST.  MANY OF THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THROUGH SUNSET...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL MERGE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE VICINTY OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA.  AS THEY
DO...ADDITIONAL STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH
MANY OF THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNTOWN ORLANDO AND POINTS
WEST.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY THROUGH SUNSET...AS SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH
LITTLE ADVANCE WARNING.  MOVE INDOORS IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OF IF
THUNDER IS HEARD...AND REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE
FINAL CLAP OF THUNDER.  REMEMBER...LIGHTNING IS THE FIRST
THUNDERSTORM HAZARD TO ARRIVE...AND THE LAST TO LEAVE.

BRAGAW

FLZ045-282215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
546 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS AND
BITHLO...AND APPROACHING THE WEDGEFIELD SUBDIVISION IN EASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY. THE STORM WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PERSONS DRIVING ON HIGHWAY 520 AND THE BEELINE...HIGHWAY 528...NEED
TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE STORMS.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

CRISTALDI

FLZ045-053-282300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
603 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OSCEOLA COPUNTY THROUGH
SUNSET...

AT 600 PM EDT...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES HAD PUSHED INTO
OSCEOLA COUNTY AND WERE CONVERGING ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA
TURNPIKE SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.  SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
PRODUCED FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

THROUGH SUNSET...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL MERGE OVER
WEST OSCEOLA COUNTY BETWEEN KISSIMMEE AND LAKE MARIAN.  AS THEY
DO...ADDITIONAL STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS AS WELL.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY THROUGH SUNSET...AS SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
QUICKLY.  MOVE INDOORS IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OF IF THUNDER IS
HEARD...AND REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE FINAL CLAP OF
THUNDER.  REMEMBER...LIGHTNING IS THE FIRST THUNDERSTORM HAZARD TO
ARRIVE...AND THE LAST TO LEAVE.

BRAGAW

FLZ045-053-282300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003

...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING JUST SOUTH OF
PLEASURE ISLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE CAMPBELL AND
LAKE TOHO.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.

MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM RIDES AS SOON AS THUNDER IS HEARD. FOLLOW
THE DIRECTIONS OF PARK STAFF.

BRAGAW