Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

A WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL MS WILL CONT TO MOVE NWD TDY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL REACH NRN MS AROUND MIDDAY AND TO THE TN/MS BORDER AROUND 00Z.
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TNT.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITH THE MAIN THREAT THIS
MORNING BEING LARGE HAIL. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES NWD LATER TDY...SFC
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE RISK OF STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE FCSTS AND OUTLOOK
PRODUCTS AS NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.MEG...NONE.

SWC

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
732 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND
WEST TENNESSEE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARKED TREE
ARKANSAS...TO JACKSON TENNESSEE...TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...AND APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO THAT TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.