Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
902 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME. LATEST SPC HAS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF. TORNADO WATCH BOX IS JUST TO OUR WEST WITH EXPIRATION TIME OF
05Z. EXPECT WATCH(ES) WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING.
00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF
173 M2/S2. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 70S FLOWING INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON SOUTH WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INITIATED EARLIER ALONG THE
DRY LINE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR
CWA BY MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS
BECOME TORNADIC HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTH MS...OVER PONTOTOC
COUNTY.

.MEG...NONE

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1200 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF MID
SOUTH. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. AFTER THURSDAY...THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SJM

MSZ016-070230-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
851 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LEE COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF TUPELO AT 851 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TUPELO AND VERONA...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MSZ016-070300-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LEE COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 19 MILES
WEST OF TUPELO AT 914 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THREE QUARTER
INCH SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 1 MILE WEST OF PONTOTOC.

PEOPLE IN LEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TUPELO AND VERONA...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MSZ017-070330-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
949 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...ITAWAMBA COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 19 MILES
WEST OF MANTACHIE AT 949 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF FULTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

MSZ006-070415-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO
COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 23 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BELMONT AT 1035 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

TNZ052-070645-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MADISON COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF
MERCER AT 106 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN MADISON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF JACKSON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ052-070645-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...MADISON COUNTY.

THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING MADISON COUNTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT
PRODUCED A TORNADO EARLIER OVER SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY HAS WEAKEND.

HOWEVER...A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 6 AM CDT.