Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

SEVERAL WATCHES IN EFFECT THIS AFTN...FORTUNATELY NONE ARE IN THE
CWA. SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTN PLACED THE LO PRES SYSTEM OVR ERN/KS/OK
WITH A FNTL BNDRY EXTENDING ACROSS MO INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY. THE
JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM TX NEWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WAS
STILL EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY WHILE THE CU FIELD WAS MASKED BLO.
THE NEAREST PRECIP WAS OCCURRING OVR NRN LA AS SEEN ON THE KDGX
RADAR.

A STRONG SW OVR KS THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EWD TWD THE OH VALLEY
OVERNITE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LO WILL TRACK INTO OH BY MIDDAY WED
WHILE THE FNT DIPS INTO NRN SXNS OF THE FA AND BECOMES STATIONARY.
PRECIP WATERS VALUES REMAIN HIGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
A STRONG LLVL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONITE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE WEST OF THE FA OVERNITE. A SW IS FCST
TO LIFT NEWD FROM AR TO WRN KY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. THE 18Z LZK INDICATED A CAPE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ERODE THRU
THE EVENING. EXPECT THE START OF TSTMS TO BE LATER TONITE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NITES WITH THE EMPHASIS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.
THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT FLOODING TO SRN SXNS OF
WRN TN AND FAR NRN MS. DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL TO THE EXTENT OF LAST
NIGHT BUT WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FCST.

AS THE SFC LO SHIFTS INTO OH TMRW THE FNTL BNDRY THAT HAS BEEN
TO OUR NORTH WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE FA AND BECOME
STATIONARY. WILL CONT LO CHC POPS FOR FOR WED/WED NITE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BNDRY. AS AN UPR LVL TROF MOVES INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS THURSDAY THE FNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD AS A
WMFNT. AN MCS SHUD DEVELOP OVR MO WED NITE AND SLIDE SEWD ALONG THE
BNDRY. WILL MENTION CHC POPS FOR THUR...MAINLY NRN SXNS. THU NITE
WILL BE DRY WITH SLGHT CHC POPS FOR FRI AS ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

WILL CONT DRY CONDS SAT AS THE WMFNT IS WELL NORTH OF THE FA AND A
CDFNT TO THE WEST. AS THE FNT APPROACHES DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN. AS THE FNT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
FA SUN NITE...MON AND TUE WILL BE DRY. GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE AND
ACCEPTED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MEM EB 070/083 069/086 072 14743
    EBEBB 085/072 087/070 083/066 080/062 078 11221333311
MKL TB 069/082 066/084 070 14753
    EBEBB 082/069 086/070 081/065 078/061 076 31221333311
JBR EB 068/082 065/084 069 14734
    EBEBB 083/069 086/071 081/065 078/061 076 31221333311
TUP TB 070/083 068/087 071 14763
    EBEBB 086/074 087/068 083/064 080/060 078 11221333311

.MEG...NONE

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
805 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST TENNESSEE...
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO HUMBOLDT TO HUNTINGDON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE MID
SOUTH. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID
SOUTH. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...INCLUDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

MSZ013-021-070130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
750 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...LAFAYETTE AND YALOBUSHA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF VELMA AT 750
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
WATER VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.