Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

LOOKING AT SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.  LATEST SPC
DY1 OUTLOOK PUTS EASTERN HALF OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK WITH MODERATE
RISK FOR NORTHEAST. EASTERN AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK DAY 2 & 3.
DID 18Z FLIGHT AND WAITING FOR IT TO GET INTO SYSTEM.

A NUMBER OF FEATURES COMING TOGETHER TO INCREASE THE RISK.  THESE
INCLUDE WARM FRONT... DRYLINE... RICK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... AND A
STRONG SHORTWAVE.

FIRST FEATURE IS A WARM FRONT THAT HAS MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS MAF AS
OF 18Z. MODELS LIFT THIS FRONT OUT OF AREA TODAY... BUT WITH
BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTH OUT OF PANHANDLE DOUBT IT WILL MOVE FAR NORTH
OF WHERE IT IS.  ETA DEVELOPS A MESO LOW OVER THE TRANS PECOS.  THIS
LOW SHOULD BRING THE WIND AROUND TO THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE.  LATEST ETA HAS DRYLINE WEST OF
PERMIAN BASIN AT 00Z.

LATEST ETA MORE IN LINE WITH AVN.  AVN BRINGS A VORT VAX DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING STRENGTHENING IT AS MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.  AVN ALSO DEVELOPS A PRECIP BULLSEYE
OVER EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOOKING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT... WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EAST TONIGHT.

DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S UNUSUAL FOR THE AREA.  MAF 12Z SOUNDING
GOES WILD WITH LI OF -11 AND CAPE OF 4733 J AND GOOD CAP IN PLACE
EARLY.  HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR.  EVEN WITH GOOD CAP IN PLACE HAD A BUNCH
OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING.  CURRENTLY
HAVE SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE GUADALUPES TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  ETA
MODEL SOUNDING FOR 00Z DROPS LI TO -4 AND CAPE TO AROUND 1500 J
MIXING CAP OUT.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE THE FRONT RETURNING SOUTHWARD... PERHAPS
REINFORCED BY CONVECTION... LIFTING IT NORTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE
DAY.  THURSDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SHOULD SEND THE FRONT BACK
DOWN INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY.  BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FRONT SHOULD BE PACKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.  WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
STORMS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPS.  THANKS SJT AND LBB FOR
COORDINATION.

INITIAL NUMBERS FOLLOW.

MAF BB 69/93/69/91/65  433
CNM BB 67/98/66/94/63  323
MRF BB 59/87/57/87/59  333
FST BB 71/95/70/94/66  323

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TXZ 47>48-51>53-63-70.
NM...NONE.

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NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-040930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT EAST OF A LAMESA TO BIG LAKE LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT EAST OF A CARLSBAD...
TO PECOS...TO SANDERSON LINE.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTERACTS WITH THESE
SURFACE FEATURES. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECASTED.

FLASH FLOODING

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT...EAST OF A GAIL TO MIDLAND LINE.
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

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