Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
138 PM CDT MON OCT  6 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SIMILAR SITUATION TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...WITH A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER...THEN CURVING TO
NEAR A KINK-KMAF-GARDEN CITY LINE.  CONVECTION ALREADY GOING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT BUOYANCY IS THERE AS ARE FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  OWING TO THE WEAK KINEMATIC SETUP PULSE MULTICELLS LOOK
TO BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT COULD TRANSITION TO
SUPERCELLS INVOF THE STATIONARY FRONT.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST...
AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
ATTM CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AGAIN TONIGHT.  HAVE FOLLOWED HPCS QPF
PLACEMENT BUT HAVE INCREASED AMOUNTS A BIT.  LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM GRIDS OVERALL WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.  DID TWEAK WINDS AND
POPS AROUND SOMEWHAT TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS...AND ONLY MINOR
NUDGES TO THE OTHER GRIDS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN/EASTERN PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW...AND WHAT IMPACTS TROPICAL
STORMS NORA AND OLAF WILL HAVE ACROSS THE CWFA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH...CONSEQUENTLY
NOT MUCH HAS BEEN DONE WITH THE GRIDS BEYOND DAY3 OR SO.  WILL KEEP
AT LEAST LOW ORDER POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN A DRYING
TREND THEREAFTER WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 62 81 61 82 / 50 30 30 30
CNM 62 83 58 81 / 50 20 20 30
MRF 57 79 55 78 / 40 20 20 20
FST 64 84 60 84 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.NM...NONE.

&&

70/70

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-062000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION...PERMIAN BASIN AND
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTHEAST OF A
ARTESIA NEW MEXICO...BALMORHEA TEXAS...TO SHEFFIELD TEXAS LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.