Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
308 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FLOODING POTENTIAL...BOTH FLASH
AND MAINSTEM...IN NE ZONES AS MCS DEVELOPS ALONG COLD FRONT...DUE
INTO THE NERN ZONES BY ABOUT 04Z.  MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
W/THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF THE EXPECTED MCS.  PBL IS
VERY MOIST...W/MSTR BACKED UP ALL THE WAY TO THE WRN MTNS.  KMAF
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...W/MLCAPES
IN EXCESS OF 2100 J/KG.  WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND DRY MID-LEVELS
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SVR WX SIMILAR TO THAT OF LATE--HAIL/DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

SHORT TERM MODEL QPFS ARE OFF THE SCALE...W/MESOETA/ETA RUNS
SHOWING 12-HR QPFS IN EXCESS OF 2 IN. IN THE EXTREME NE ZONES.
THINK THIS IS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...AND PREFER QPFS A LITTLE MORE IN
LINE W/THAT OF THE AVN/HPC.  STILL...WHAT W/SATURATED SOILS FROM
THE PREVIOUS WEEK AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING AT ELEVATED
LEVELS...IF EVEN THE LOWER QPFS PAN OUT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER LEVELS FLIRTING W/ACTION STAGES.  COLORADO CITY
STILL HAS ABOUT 7 FT TO GO TO REACH FS...AND DEPENDING ON
AMTS/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...RIVERS COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR THE NERN ZONES...W/NOT MUCH
CHANGE SW AS FRONT DIFFUSES.  TIMING OF MCS SUGGESTS LINGERING
CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY OVR THE NERN ZONES...AND MESOETA BRINGS A
SHORTWAVE OVR THE BIG BEND LATE SUN AFTERNOON.  MONDAY...UPPER LVL
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL...AND H85 TEMPS JUMP TO AROUND 30 DEG C
FOR A WARMUP INTO THE 90S.  THIS SHOULD STAY MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT UNDER ZONAL FLOW INTO THE EXTENDED.  ON TUESDAY EVENING...
MODELS ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL CONFINE CHANCES TO THE
ERN ZONES IN THE BETTER MSTR.  GFS TRIES TO REPEAT THIS SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN TO SEE IF THIS IS
CONSISTENT BEFORE MENTIONING ANYTHING OTHER THAT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.  THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY.

&&

MAF 61 83 69 93 / 20 00 00 20
CNM 59 88 66 98 / 00 00 00 00
MRF 58 88 59 89 / 00 10 10 00
FST 94 63 84 65 / 00 00 20 00

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT TXZ045>048-050>053-062-063-070.
NM...NONE.

44

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-080900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM
STANTON TO LAMESA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WEST OF THIS LINE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLATED AND A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING OF CREEKS AND LOW LYING URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALSO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND BEALS
CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.