Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES AND EFFECTS ON
TEMPS.

RATHER BENIGN WX ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG WITH JUST SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS DVLPG ATTM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN DVLPG THE LAST
FEW HRS OVR ERN OK AND IF TRENDS CONT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
AFFECT MY WRN ZNS LATER THIS MRNG. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST POPS TODAY
IN THE W...WITH LESSER CHCS FURTHER EWD.

MODELS RMN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE
MID-SOUTH IN THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL CONT TO DROP
SEWD ACRS THE FA RESULTING IN CONTD CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. PLAN TO KEEP
POPS IN THE CHC CAT THRU MON OVER THE FA AS TIMING OF UPPER ENERGY
AND POP PLACEMENT ALWAYS A PROBLEM IN THIS PATTERN. TRENDED TOWARD
THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST AS GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

IN THE EXTENDED...LATEST GFS RUN STILL INDCG A CDFNT WORKING ACRS AR
ON WED. CURRENT FCST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ALL THE LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING WRN U.S. UPPER RDG BUILDING EWD LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND LTL IF ANY RAIN CHCS. NO
SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS.  ..44..

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL.

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ARE NOT
VERY STRONG. THUS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THESE PERIODS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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