Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
417 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF CWFA. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON KLZK RADAR IN NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE STATE ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN TEXAS AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN VERY
UNSTABLE AIR. A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. LIFTED
INDICES UP TO -11 WERE INDICATED WITH A CAPE OF 4500 J/KG WERE NOTED
ON THE 18Z KLZK SOUNDING. GOOD SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT. THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK UP TO THE NORTH. THIS
IS GOING TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHWARD
TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON TUESDAY SINCE ARKANSAS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR. MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY.

THE FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI AND THE DRY LINE IN TEXAS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH ALSO AND KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

HRO   60  82  57  81 /  50  30  40  40
LIT   66  87  67  86 /  70  30  40  40
HOT   66  87  67  86 /  70  30  40  40
PBF   68  88  69  86 /  70  30  40  40

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTBREAK.
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER ALL OF ARKANSAS AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH
THIS AIR MASS TO ADD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY. THESE WINDS
ARE CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT MEANING TORNADOS ARE A VERY GOOD
POSSIBILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS FROM A GLENWOOD TO ARKADELPHIA TO PINE BLUFF TO A DE WITT
LINE AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS COULD SEE TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. EVEN WHERE TORNADIC STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP...
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY.

THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SAME
AREAS THROUGH OUT THE DAY AND NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL PRETTY MUCH STALL ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. SEVERAL SYSTEMS FROM THE PLAINS WILL
JOIN WITH THE FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY IS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
1121 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 AM    NORTH LITTLE ROCK         AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   PULASKI                        TREES DOWN. TREES FELL
                                          ONTO HOUSE ON PROSPECT
                                          TRAIL NEAR WILD RIVER
                                          COUNTRY. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

0155 AM    CABOT                     AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   LONOKE                         LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE.

218

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
119 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 PM    CAMDEN                    AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   OUACHITA                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1230 PM    CAMDEN                    AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   OUACHITA                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0105 PM    BANKS                     AR   .88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   BRADLEY                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

218

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
227 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0126 PM    MONTICELLO                AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   DREW                           REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0150 PM    MONTICELLO                AR   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   DREW                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

218

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
300 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0255 PM    WARREN                    AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   BRADLEY                        LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN.
                                          NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALSO
                                          REPORTED. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

218

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
421 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 PM    6 E THORNTON              AR   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   CALHOUN                        REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

218

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
443 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    2 S STAR CITY             AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

0431 PM    STAR CITY                 AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

38