Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AT ISSUE TIME. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
OF THE CWA AT 12Z AND A LULL WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT AND DO NOT BELIEVE
IT WILL MOVE MUCH MORE. WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE NORTH AND INCREASED DEW POINTS FOR
TODAY IN MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS MAY BE CAPPED IN MOST AREAS
SO DO NOT SEE A BIG CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP
30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR RESIDUAL RAIN LEFT OVER FROM
THE MCS...AND MINIMAL 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BUT MAY BE HELD DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTH NEAR WHERE THE
FRONT WILL SET UP. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF A MAJOR RAIN EVENT IN
THE NORTHWEST. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AND HIGH QPFS FOR THE NORTH
FOR TONIGHT WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT ENTIRE AREA INTO WARM
SECTOR. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR MOST
OF REST OF THE WEEK AND THE AREA MAY BE CAPPED MOST OF THAT TIME.
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED DUE TO THE
CONTINUING HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEW GFS
SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL GO A LITTLE SLOWER.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>064-067-068-
071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY...BEFORE
BACKING TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH
IN SOME SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

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ARZ002>075-071000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

TORNADO WATCH #279 HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...BAXTER...BOONE...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...
FRANKLIN...IZARD...JOHNSON...LOGAN...MADISON...MARION...
NEWTON...POLK...POPE...SCOTT...SEARCY...
SEBASTIAN...SHARP...STONE...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON...

TORNADO WATCH #279 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...ARKANSAS...BRADLEY...
CALHOUN...CLARK...CLEBURNE...CLEVELAND...CONWAY...DALLAS...DESHA...
DREW...FAULKNER...GARLAND...GRANT...HOT SPRING...INDEPENDENCE...
JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LINCOLN...LONOKE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
OUACHITA...PERRY...PIKE...PRAIRIE...PULASKI...SALINE...WHITE...WOODRU
FF AND YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT.

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