Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...
MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY ARE FFLDG AND SVR. AREA RAOBS
SHOWING PWATS HIGHER THAN YDY. GPS IPWV DATA AROUND THE AREA ALSO
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCRS OVR THE PAST 24-36H. STORMS YDY WERE
ALSO VRY EFFICIENT PRODUCING 1-3 IN/HR RAFL RATES WITH SOME FLDG.
ALL IN ALL...FLOOD THREAT CONTS TO INCRS...AND WL CONT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

AS FOR SVR...WATCH BOX IN THE S ALREADY. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IS
PRIMED FOR SVR TODAY. BEST ORGANIZATION LIKELY IN THE N WITH STGST
SHEAR...WHILE OVR THE S...BEST AEREAL CVRG XPCTD. DEEP LYR SHEAR
STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SVR. AGAIN TODAY WITH
SHORT LINEAR HODOGRAPHS LINEAR MODE FAVORED WITH SVR MAINLY ASSOC
WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS. WET MICROBURSTS IN PCPN LOADED STORMS WL
ALSO BE A PROB TODAY. SHEAR PARMS MUCH STRONGER IN THE RUC
SNDGS...BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

POPS CONT OVNGT AND CHC POPS AGAIN TMRW WITH ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE. 50 POPS BOTH PDS.

MANNING

.LONG TERM FRI NGT THROUGH THU...
ETA STILL SHOWING THE CWA MOIST AND UNSTABLE SAT AND FNT WILL BE
SINKING S OVR THE AREA. ANOTHER GOOD SHOT AT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION.
WILL USE 40 POPS AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING.

BOTH MODELS NOW IN CONSENSUS IN FCSTG FNT S OF US...AND CWA IN DRY
ZONE. WILL HAPPILY PULL POPS FOR SUNDAY. SHOULD BE COOLER AND A LTL
LESS HUMID TOO. GFS KEEPS DRY AIR IN PLACE THRU MID WEEK. EXTENDED
SHOWS NEXT FNT IN ON DAY 7...THURSDAY.

RDH

.LWX...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...
     MDZ013...MDZ014.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE VAZ021...VAZ025>031...
     VAZ036>042...VAZ050>056.
     SVR TSTM WATCH #527 TIL 23Z VAZ021...VAZ025>026...
     VAZ036>039...VAZ050...VAZ055>057.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVE WVZ048>055.
MARINE...NONE.

SVR TSTM WATCH ALL ZONES TIL 00Z.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND.

RDH

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-130000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1135 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A STALLING COLD FRONT OVER PENNSYLVANIA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MANNING

VAZ037-038-121815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
117 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE BLUE RIDGE...

AT 117 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WHITE HALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF CROZET...STANARDSVILLE AND FREE UNION WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM THROUGH 215 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    CHARLES TOWN              WV   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   JEFFERSON                      TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
456 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0352 PM    WARRENTON                 VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   FAUQUIER                       LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN
                                          WARRENTON

0415 PM    GREENWICH                 VA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   PRINCE WILLIAM                 TREES DOWNED LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT REPORT.