Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
800 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

FLOODING AND GUSTY TSTMS ONGOING THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED ZFP
ALREADY TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FIRST PERIOD AND BUMPED UP
POPS.

WILL UPDATE ZFP AGAIN AFT 900 PM WHEN SVR BOX EXPIRES. RDH.

PREV DISCS...
----------------------------------------------------

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...
STNRY BOUNDARY TO THE N WL BE THE MAIN PLAYER OVR THE NEXT 24H. WK
SW TROFS RACING BY WL CAUSE BOUTS OF CONVECTION WITH CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AMS IN PLACE. FOR THIS AFTN/TNGT...THINK THAT SCT
CONVECTION STILL IN THE OFFING. STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE W WL CONT
TO MOVE TO THE E AND ADDITIONAL TSRA XPCTD TO DEVELOP E OF THE MTNS.
PROBLEM TODAY REMAINS FORCING OR LACK THEREOF. LTL IN THE WAY OF SFC
BOUNDARIES TO FORCE CONVECTION...BUT AMS IS STILL PLENTY UNSTABLE.
SHEAR IS MARGINAL...FAVORING LINEAR MODE WITH ISOLD SVR POSS MAINLY
ACROSS THE W. HVY RAFL ALSO MAY BE A PROB...AS PLENTY OF AVAIL
MOISTURE...AND ECHOES OFF TO THE SW ALREADY STARTING TO TRAIN. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDS...WON/T TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLDG. FOR
NOW...HOWEVER...CAN/T REALLY PIN DOWN ANY ONE AREA AND FEEL THAT
PROBS WL BE ISOLD SO NO WATCH ATTM. OVRALL...THINKING NOT CHANGED
MUCH FM MORN UPDATE.

OVNGT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE WANE...BUT WL KEEP 40
POPS MENTIONED ALL NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE W THIS
EVE.

FOR TMRW...STNRY BOUNDARY TO THE N WL SAG A LTL FURTHER S. A STG SFC
WV DEVELOPS ALG THE FNT...MOVING WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA. OVRALL
INCREASE IN THE FLOW THRU TMRW...AND WITH WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY
THINK THAT SVR WX AGAIN A POSS. AGAIN...LINEAR MODE FAVORED WITH
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS. IF SFC LOW TRAVELS A BIT FURTHER TO THE S
AND LLVL FLOW CAN BACK SOMEWHAT HODOGRAPHS WOULD START TO GET LARGER
AND MORE ORGANIZED SVR WX WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS INSTAB WL BE
ABUNDANT. FOR NOW...BEST ESTIMATION IS A BKN LINE OF TSRA...SOME
SVR.

NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE MDL TEMPS GETTING CRANKED UP CLOSE TO 90
TMRW. FELT THINGS COULD BE A FEW DEG WARMER THAN TODAY M/U 80S...BUT
HV DROPPED BACK TO L/M 80S TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING WFOS.

MANNING

.LONG TERM THU NGT THROUGH WED...
MODELS HIGHLY DIVERGENT THIS AFTN WITH THEIR SOLNS THROUGH DAY 7.
ETA BASICALLY STAYS MOIST THRU 84 HRS. GFS IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
STARTING FRIDAY...THEN HAS A HUGE SWATH OF MOISTURE PARKED TO OUR SW
MON. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE ETA GIVEN THAT IT IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ONGOING PKG. DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY YO-YO SEVERAL
DAYS FCST WISE BASED ON ONE MODEL.

FOR FRI...ETA HAS FNT N OF CWA. GFS HAS FNT CUTTING A SLICE THROUGH
THE AREA WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR COVERING NW 1/3RD. SPC HAS MOST
OF THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK DAY 3...SO WILL MAKE NO CHGS TO FRI FCST.
ON SAT...AGAIN...FNT IS S OF AREA ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE ETA
SHOWS WEAK CIRCULATION NWRN ZONES IN THE AFTN WITH MOST OF THE CWA
UNSTABLE AND MOIST. EXTRAPOLATION OF ETA INTO SUNDAY WOULD HINT THAT
WELL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...AM BASICALLY GOING TO LEAVE THE PERIOD THU NGT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONE. MAYBE SOME MINOR WORDING TWEEKS. IF
MODELS CONVERGE ON THE GFS SOLN...MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS SOME FRI
AND SAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N...BUT WILL NEED TO ADD POPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED...CONFIDENCE IN MID TO LATE PERIODS IS LOW.

RDH

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
520 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE U.S. ROUTE 15 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA
COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

MANNING/RDH

VAZ030-120000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
734 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 734 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ARCO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
FRONT ROYAL WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 800 PM EDT.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MANNING

VAZ039-051-120045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

...ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVING INTO CULPEPER COUNTY...

AT 8:13 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3
MILES WEST OF FORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
CULPEPER...MERRIMAC...WHITE SHOP...WINSTON...STEVENSBURG...AND
MITCHELLS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 8:45 PM EDT.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

MMARGRAF

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