Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

WELL...AS I FEARED TSTMS HV DVLPD ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HTG BNDRY
ACROSS SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPS RANGING FM L90S TO M70S IN CWA. RDR
OPERATOR IS KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON STORMS AND WRNGS WL BE ISSUED IF
NEEDED.

AFTER THIS THE NEXT PROB IS THE PTNL FOR FLOODING. GIVEN LOCATION OF
STATIONARY BNDRY AND FACT THAT MANY MORE HRS EXIST WHERE RAINFALL
COULD BE AT LEAST MDT HV ISSUED A FLD WTCH FOR NW CORNER OF THE CWA.
IN EARLIER FLD OUTLOOK STMTS I THOUGHT THAT WED NGT-THURS WOULD BE
THE MAIN PROBLEM TIMES...BUT NEWER MDLS/CURRENT TRENDS MAKE ME THINK
THAT WED-WED NGT HV THE HIGHEST PTNL FOR FLDG. MIDSHIFT TNGT IS
ACTUALLY WORKING W/ ME NOW...AND HV BRIEFED THAT WTCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED OVRNGT.

OVRNGT TEMPS 65-70. WED L80S.

WOODY

...LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THRU TUE...
WITH A FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND THE REMNANTS OF GRACE APPROACHING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY...WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PWATS OVER 2  AND GOOOD LIFT TRANSLATES TO PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THETA E RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

ETA AND GFS SIMILAR IN THE PLACEMENT OF BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
LOW LEVEL MSTR CONVERGENCE. BRINGING FIRST UPPER DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE
ACROSS THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVE AND THE SECOND MIDDAY THURSDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF VA AND MD.

DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH FRONT/
SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE. BASED ON POSITION OF FRONT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW. /CPW

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...FLD WTCH MDZ002-003.
VA...FLD WTCH VAZ027>031.
WV...FLD WTCH WVZ048>053-055.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-030800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1129 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
FURTHER DETAILS.