Flash Flood Warning 120, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

LTL TO CHG W/ CRRNT PKG. AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVR BAY MVG WWD ONSHORE.
LOOKS TO BE INDUCED BY BAY CNVGNC BNDRY. PREFRNTL SHRA/TSRA ACRS WVA
MVG EWD. WL RMV TIMING FM 1ST PD...AND ADJUST LTL ELSE. WL GO W/
LIKELY POPS EVRYWHR PER RADAR TRENDS. MAXT OK...LWR LYRS OF SNDG A
TOUCH WRMR TDA THAN YDA...AS IS FCST VS OBSVD YDA. LO LYR RH /BR AND
LOW CLDS/ KEEPING TEMPS FM RISING APPRECIABLY. THIS WL REDUCE CNVCTV
THREAT AS WELL...W/ MDL SNDGS NOT SHWG MUCH INSTAB...AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N.  -HTS

.SHORT RANGE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM TROPICAL AMS OVR THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORN. AREAS OF FG HV
FORMED...BUT VIS GENERALLY ABV 1/4SM SO NO ADV ATTM. WL PLAN ON
CARRYING PATCHY FG THRU MID MORN.

AREA OF SHRA JUST E OF THE CWFA CONTS TO SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE
W...WHILE ADDL SHRA ALG THE CDFNT W OF THE AREA CONT. LTL CAPPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH POPS WARRANTED WITH FROPA
TODAY. MDLS IN GOOD AGRMT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FNT...CLEARING THE
AREA BY EARLY-MID EVE. PLAN ON LIKELY POPS IN THE N AND CHC POPS TO
THE S. WL ALSO WORD THINGS AS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON

OTRW...MVFR AT BEST...LIFR AT WORST IN THE TAFS THIS MORN...WITH A
SLOW IMPRVMT TO MVFR/VFR CONDS BY LATE MORN. FG/LOW CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MID ATL
BEHIND CDFNT.

MANNING

.EXTENDED (TUE...SUN)...
TUE AND WED LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAYS OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE BRINING LOW PW/S OF ABOUT 0.5 INCH WHICH CONTS THROUGH
WED. WEAK 85H CAA BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MSTLY SUNNY
DAY TUE. FOR WED...GFS SHOW HIGH LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

THEN LATER PART OF WEEK...THU AND FRI...DOMINATED BY TRACK OF ISABEL.
LATEST TPC GUIDANCE SHOWS ISABEL CROSSING ERN PORTION OF CWA
SOMETIME ON THU. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINY AT THIS TIME RANGE IN
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTING OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS. BE PREPARED. AT
THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE UP THE BAY AND
ASSOCIATED FLOOD THREAT ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR TO BE BIGGEST PROBLEMS POSED BY ISABEL FOR OUR REGION. LATEST
TPC FORECAST SHOWS ACCELERATION COMMENCES ON THU...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL FROM ISABEL.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FRCST FOR SAT AND SUN.

SMZ

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

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