Alert archive / Maryland / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Baltimore/Washington

September 15, 2003Harford County, Maryland

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flash flood warning at Sep 15, 2003, 11:17 AM EDT for Harford County, Maryland. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 15, 2003, 11:17 AM EDT (15:17 UTC)
Expired: Sep 15, 2003, 2:15 PM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Harford County, MD

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 364 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 661 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 15, 10:10 AM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 15, 10:10 AM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1010 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

LTL TO CHG W/ CRRNT PKG. AREA OF SHRA/TSRA OVR BAY MVG WWD ONSHORE.
LOOKS TO BE INDUCED BY BAY CNVGNC BNDRY. PREFRNTL SHRA/TSRA ACRS WVA
MVG EWD. WL RMV TIMING FM 1ST PD...AND ADJUST LTL ELSE. WL GO W/
LIKELY POPS EVRYWHR PER RADAR TRENDS. MAXT OK...LWR LYRS OF SNDG A
TOUCH WRMR TDA THAN YDA...AS IS FCST VS OBSVD YDA. LO LYR RH /BR AND
LOW CLDS/ KEEPING TEMPS FM RISING APPRECIABLY. THIS WL REDUCE CNVCTV
THREAT AS WELL...W/ MDL SNDGS NOT SHWG MUCH INSTAB...AND BEST
DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N.  -HTS

.SHORT RANGE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM TROPICAL AMS OVR THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORN. AREAS OF FG HV
FORMED...BUT VIS GENERALLY ABV 1/4SM SO NO ADV ATTM. WL PLAN ON
CARRYING PATCHY FG THRU MID MORN.

AREA OF SHRA JUST E OF THE CWFA CONTS TO SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE
W...WHILE ADDL SHRA ALG THE CDFNT W OF THE AREA CONT. LTL CAPPING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT HIGH POPS WARRANTED WITH FROPA
TODAY. MDLS IN GOOD AGRMT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE FNT...CLEARING THE
AREA BY EARLY-MID EVE. PLAN ON LIKELY POPS IN THE N AND CHC POPS TO
THE S. WL ALSO WORD THINGS AS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON

OTRW...MVFR AT BEST...LIFR AT WORST IN THE TAFS THIS MORN...WITH A
SLOW IMPRVMT TO MVFR/VFR CONDS BY LATE MORN. FG/LOW CIGS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE TNGT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE MID ATL
BEHIND CDFNT.

MANNING

.EXTENDED (TUE...SUN)...
TUE AND WED LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAYS OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON TUE BRINING LOW PW/S OF ABOUT 0.5 INCH WHICH CONTS THROUGH
WED. WEAK 85H CAA BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR MSTLY SUNNY
DAY TUE. FOR WED...GFS SHOW HIGH LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

THEN LATER PART OF WEEK...THU AND FRI...DOMINATED BY TRACK OF ISABEL.
LATEST TPC GUIDANCE SHOWS ISABEL CROSSING ERN PORTION OF CWA
SOMETIME ON THU. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINY AT THIS TIME RANGE IN
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTING OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS. BE PREPARED. AT
THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM STORM SURGE UP THE BAY AND
ASSOCIATED FLOOD THREAT ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEAR TO BE BIGGEST PROBLEMS POSED BY ISABEL FOR OUR REGION. LATEST
TPC FORECAST SHOWS ACCELERATION COMMENCES ON THU...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL FROM ISABEL.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FRCST FOR SAT AND SUN.

SMZ

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 15, 11:00 AM EDT, 17 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 15, 5:40 AM EDT, 5 hours 37 minutes before

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-
WVZ048>055-152000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
540 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK...

HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A
NORTHWEST TRACK. THE STORM MAY BEGIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 3 DAYS AWAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE. PREPARATIONS FOR A HURRICANE ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR A
MAJOR WINTER STORM. MAKE SURE THAT YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN IS
READY TO BE USED.

CHECK YOUR INSURANCE TO BE CERTAIN YOU HAVE ADEQUATE COVERAGE IN
CASE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS IS DAMAGED BY WINDS OR WATER.

HAVE FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED APPLIANCES ON HAND IN CASE
POWER IS INTERRUPTED. A BATTERY POWERED RADIO IS A GOOD WAY TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND OTHER IMPORTANT INFORMATION IF
ELECTRICITY IS LOST. ENSURE THAT YOUR VEHICLE HAS A FULL FUEL TANK.

KEEP A SUPPLY OF NON PERISHABLE FOODS AND BEVERAGES THAT CAN LAST
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO KEEP COOKING TOOLS AND A CAN OPENER HANDY.

KEEP EXTRA HYGIENE ITEMS ON HAND. IF YOU TAKE MEDICATIONS...HAVE
EXTRA PRESCRIPTIONS AVAILABLE.

FOR THOSE WHO LIVE IN COASTAL AREAS...DECIDE NOW WHERE YOU WILL GO
IN THE EVENT YOU ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE. IF YOU PLAN TO GO TO A
SHELTER...YOU WILL HAVE TO MAKE OTHER ARRANGEMENTS FOR YOUR PETS.
STORM SHELTERS NORMALLY DO NOT ACCEPT ANIMALS. KNOW YOUR BEST
EVACUATION ROUTE WELL BEFORE THE STORM STRIKES.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE
STORM WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STORMS IMPACT. AS
THE STORM NEARS THE COAST...THE STORM TRACK FORECAST WILL BE
FURTHER REFINED. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE DETAIL AS TO THE IMPACTS OF
THIS STORM. LANDFALLING HURRICANES CAN PRODUCE VIOLENT WINDS...
TORNADOES...FLOODING RAINS...AND INUNDATION OF COASTAL AREAS BY
STORM SURGE AND TIDAL FLOODING.

ALL ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON HURRICANE ISABEL
THIS WEEK. BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

MANNING/SMZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 15, 2:08 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Harford	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Maryland, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.