Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST WEST OF SDF AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...LOTS OF
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH FA THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
MORE ELONGATED AS WEEK PROGRESSES. PER NCEP DISCUSSION...GFS IS
BETTER INITIALIZED THAN ETA AND HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT BUT IS
AGAIN PLAGUED BY SPURIOUS VORT AND PRECIPITATION MAXES. WILL LEAN
TOWARD GFS BUT WILL FACTOR OUT SPURIOUS PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HEADING TOWARD FA. ALSO SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF UNSTABLE
L.I.S OVER CENTRAL KY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE STORMS AREA
INCREASING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM ILLINOIS AND IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL RAISE POPS INTO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR STORMS TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON POPS WILL DECREASE AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AVIATION SHOWS A MAX OF PRECIPITATION AND
VERTICAL VELOCITY ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY BUT WILL
IGNORE AS THIS APPEARS TO BE SPURIOUS.

WITH THE UPPER LOWS INFLUENCE CONTINUING OVER OUR AREA WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA...TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY SIMILAR TO OR ONLY A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN SUNDAY/S
TEMPERATURES. WILL ALLOW A LITTLE WARMING OVER THE WEST AS CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN SOME AFTER TROUGH PASSES. WARM DAYS AND VERY MILD NIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS
GOOD.

.EXTENDED...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED FOR NOW.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED
THAT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY..

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
642 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    OKOLONA                   KY   WIND DAMAGE
08/04/03   JEFFERSON                      TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

RL