Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2003

.SHORT TERM THOUGHTS...
LARGE SCALE 500MB TROF/LOW REMAINS IN VICINITY OF FA THRU PERIOD,
WITH A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE WAVES TRANSLATING INTO OH VLY WITHIN
NWLY FLOW. OF IMMEDIATE INTEREST, ONE SUCH WAVE NOW OVER MN/WI FCST
TO DROP SWD OVERNIGHT, WITH POTL FOR A SCT-BKN LINE OF TSRA TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. WITH SOME ANTECEDENT DRY AIR ABV 700MB, COULD
SEE SOME STG WIND GUSTS ASSOC WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SECOND MID-LEVEL
WAVE ASSOC WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MID-SOUTH ATTM, COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY OR GRAVITY WAVE PROPAGATING NEWD THRU WRN KY (PER
VIS SAT), COULD CONCEIVABLY GENERATE SOME SCT TSRA OVER PARTS OF THE
FA THIS EVE. INTO MON, SIG 500MB WAVE/TROF AXIS ROTATES EWD THRU FA,
BUT WITH ADDTL LIFT ASSOC WITH UPSTREAM 300MB JET STREAK AND STEEP
L/RS SEEN IN 12Z GFS BUFKIT DATA, SCT TSRA FCST WELL INTO MON
NIGHT. GIVEN FCST INSTABILITY/FRZ LVLS, SOME HAILERS POSS ALONG WITH
WIND MAKERS. TUE AND WED FCSTS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS FA REMAINS UNDER
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE WAVES FLOWING WITHIN.
850-500MB L/RS ARE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/MON, PERHAPS LIMITING
PCPN CHCS. HWVR, WITH LIFT ASSOC WITH A COUPLE JET CORES TUE/WED
AFTERNOON AND FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTY, WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC TSRA
EACH DAY. XXV

.EXTENDED INSIGHTS...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS SOME BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
TRANSLATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
(TROUGHINESS EAST/RIDGE WEST) TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WESTERN RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND BUILD INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WITH HOT WEATHER REMAINING THERE FOR THE TIME BEING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS
EVENING...THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. NO BIG CHANGES
TO TEMPS EITHER WITH MOS QUITE CONSISTENT. JMB

.LMK...NONE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1230 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROPS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM ILLINOIS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IT NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

JA