Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

...SHORT TERM UPDATE...

500MB WAVE OVER SE MO MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD, AHEAD OF WHICH SCT
SHRA PERSIST OVER LMK FA ATTM. VERY MOIST AIRMASS, WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KFT AND PWS LOCALLY POOLING TO 2.5 INDICATE POTL FOR
HIGH PCPN EFFICIENCY CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING. FACTORING IN LAST
NIGHTS RAINS, LOCATIONS ACROSS SRN IN CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PRONE
TO FLOODING, SO FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THERE. PER LAPS, SFC BASED
INSTABILITY INCR ATTM, ESP ACROSS SRN KY WHERE ONLY SCT CLOUDS
EXIST. HWVR, PER RECENT ACARS RAOB OUT OF KSDF, DECENT INVERSION
NOTED AROUND 850MB, SO CURRENT PCPN ONLY HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY
ABOVE 850MB TO WORK WITH. BY NOON OR SO, THIS INVERSION SHOULD BE
OVERCOME AS SFC TEMPS INCR, LEADING TO AN INCR IN TSRA ACTIVITY OVER
FA ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC TROF AS IT MOVES EWD INTO FA. DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH WINDS THE MOST PROBABLE OF THE SVR MODES. SWATH
OF SUBSIDENCE AFTER 0Z/FRI SHOULD PUT AN END TO SIG PCPN FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE FA THIS EVE. XXV

.LMK...FLOOD WATCH THRU 8 PM EDT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM LOUISVILLE NORTHEAST.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-110945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HIGH WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FOR THIS REASON
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND A FLOOD WATCH AS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH 8 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMALLCOMB

KYZ028>030-033>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-101815-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
157 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CURRENTLY TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF FRANKFORT TO LEITCHFIELD...THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE VERY
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. THIS
LINE WILL EFFECT THE FOLLOWING CITIES AND TOWN WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR...FRANKFORT...BLOOMFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...LAWRENCEBURG...AND
BARDSTOWN.

ANOTHER AREA OF STORM ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH ACROSS
GREEN...TAYLOR...AND MARION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS AREA
OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. THIS AREA WILL EFFECT THE FOLLOWING CITIES
AND TOWN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...SPRINGFIELD...DANVILLE...JACKTOWN
...AND HARRODSBURG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING(500 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON) FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.