Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE LOWER OH VLY LATER TODAY HELPING USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. UNTIL THEN TSTMS
INTENSIFYING SOMEWHAT BUT MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KY THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
STORMS EXIST ATTM. BOW SEGMENTS...BUT NOT MUCH OF A LINEAR SQUALL
LINE ATTM...TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO THE FA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I65 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK. ANOTHER LESS IMPRESSIVE LINE OF LINEAR TSTMS MOVED ACROSS
THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 6-7Z BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...APPEARED TO
HAVE BEEN RIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT.

WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING IN E CTRL KY AS CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO THE FIRST PERIOD. OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WNW AND INCREASING THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTN. M.ETA WRLY 850MB WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTN TO
AROUND 50KTS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE VEERING TO NW AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR THE NRN MOST KY COUNTIES AND ALL OF S CTRL
IN COUNTIES. WILL EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 03Z SO IT WILL CONTINUE
INTO MUCH OF THE EVNG. THANKS FOR COORD ON THIS INDY AND PADUCAH.

WITH COLD TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID OH VLY TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NRN/ERN KY
AND SRN INDIANA COUNTIES. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH MO CLOUDY IN THE
NORTH AND MO CLEAR IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH MON MRNG. DECREASING
CLOUDS AGAIN MONDAY WITH THE AFTN SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE VERY
PLEASANT WITH GOOD SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPS MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE EXTDD FORECAST PERIODS.

.LMK...TORNADO WATCH #353 EXPIRES AT 6 AM EDT FOR CENTRAL KY.
       WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF A MEADE TO CLARK
       COUNTY KY LINE THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING (INCLUDES IND CTYS).

JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FORECAST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON LINE, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF THAT LINE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM EDT,
AND CROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AFTER 3 AM EDT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 80 TO 90 MPH IN BOW ECHOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOILS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED OVER MANY LOCATIONS
FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.

SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LATE NIGHT EVENT, YOU SHOULD ENSURE THAT
YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS TURNED ON, OR LEFT IN ALERT MODE, SO THAT
YOU CAN BE AWAKENED SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH YOUR AREA. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA, OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV ON
THE INTERNET, FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND AMATEUR RADIO NETWORKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION, PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS, ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

SCHOLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 AM    HORSE CAVE                KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/11/03   HART                           TREES DOWN. ALSO TREES
                                          DOWN IN PRICEVILLE.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
524 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 AM    HORSE CAVE                KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/11/03   HART                           TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0430 AM    MUNFORDVILLE              KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/11/03   HART                           TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
540 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0532 AM    MCAFEE                    KY   TORNADO
05/11/03   MERCER                         TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST
                                          SOUTH OF MCAFEE. REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
606 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0533 AM    HARRODSBURG               KY   POSSIBLE TORNADO
05/11/03   MERCER                         TWO HOMES WERE DESTROYED
                                          ON HIGHWAY 127 NORTH OF
                                          HARRODSBURG. UNSPECIFIED
                                          DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES WEST
                                          OF HARRODSBURG. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
616 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 AM    MUNFORDVILLE              KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/11/03   HART                           POSSIBLE TORNADO. HIGHWAY
                                          31W WAS BLOCKED. A SHED AND
                                          MUCH DEBRIS WAS IN THE
                                          ROAD. MANY TREES WERE DOWN
                                          IN MUNFORDVILLE. REPORT
                                          RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0534 AM    5 N CAMPBELLSVILLE        KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/11/03   TAYLOR                         *** 4 INJ ***
                                          A MOBILE HOME WAS
                                          OVERTURNED. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

MRC