Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

SHORT TERM:

PRIMARY QUESTION CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
LATER TODAY. SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS IN SOME WAYS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE EXCEEDING LIGHT...AND STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE ONE AGAIN SLOW TO ALMOST STATIONARY. EARLY THIS MORNING A
WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE LOW WAS COLOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. IN
FACT...STORMS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA ATTM ARE MOVING WEST...WHILE
THOSE NEAR TENNESSEE ARE SLIDING EAST. THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY SOME DYNAMICS FROM
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET WILL LEAD ONCE AGAIN
TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHICH
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES...AND EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF
STORMS...THREAT EXIST FOR ISOLATED 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THREAT OF
FLOODING.

WILL ADD AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE INTO MORNING FORECAST AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO 3 TO 5 MILES ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIFFICULT
TO IDENTIFY ANY DISTINCT DISTURBANCES UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...WHEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS INDIANA. WITH LI/S INDICATING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON...WILL NOT CHANGE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH INCLUDES CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

GFS STILL ADVERTISING A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. 1021MB HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING...AND NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PUSH MOIST AIR INTO
TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LMK...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

DENMAN

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
522 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE UP TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN
FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
UNDERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THESE REASONS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 PM EDT FOR THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JA