Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Louisville, KY

000 
WGUS73 KLMK 152050
FFSLMK
INC123-152200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EST SUN JUN 15 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM EST FOR PERRY COUNTY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 345 PM LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED BRANCHVILLE ROAD NEAR 
BRANCHVILLE WAS FLOODED WITH DEEP WATER. NO OTHER REPORTS HAVE YET 
BEEN RECEIVED. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN PERRY COUNTY MAINLY FROM TELL CITY EAST TO 
NEAR ORIOLE WILL BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH THROUGH 445 PM. ADDITIONAL 
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

$$

JB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

SHORT TERM:

VERY SHORT TERM IS HOW TO HANDLE FLOOD WATCH. MODEL MASS FILEDS NOT
SO DIFFERENT NEXT 24 HRS... BUT CONSIDERABLE VARIETY OF QPF OFFERED
NEVERTHELESS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT MID AFTN SHOWING ELONGATED
WAVE ACRS CNTRL KY...DRIFTING EWD...WHILE POTENT S/W NOTED IN NE
ARKANSAS...LIFTED NEWD.  MEANWHILE OLE FNT HAS MADE IT ACRS THE OH
RIVER...AND WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED THAT IT MOVES NO FURTHER THE NXT
FEW DAYS. MM5 INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.8 INCHES TNGT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH APRCHG ARKANSAS S/W...AND CONVG ALNG SAID
FNT...SHUD HELP INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CONVERAGE LATER THIS AFTN AND
EVNG. WE WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT...SO EVNG SHFT DOES
NOT HAVE TO FIDDLE WITH ZONES IF THINGS BECOME ACTIVE.

ONE CAVEOT...PERSISTENT SHWRS/TSTMS IN ERN IND AND SRN
OHIO...LOCATED IN DEFORMATION OR CULL AREA...IN H5 FLOW TDA. MESO
ETA SHOWING DEFORMATION SETTING UP DURING THE WEE HOURS OVR OUR NRN
FORECAST AREA (FA) WITH TROPICAL-LIKE NOCTURNAL RAINS.  THIS IS NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT THAT GREAT TO
HAVE A WATCH RUNNING ALL NIGHT...SINCE LCL MM5/GFS AND UMKET NOT
OFFERING THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT EVALUATE THE
NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

WITH FRONTAL BNDRY IN OUR AREA MONDAY...ALNG WITH EMBEDDED WAVE MOVG
THRU RGN IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT ... WILL AGAIN YIELD SOME SHWRS AND
TSTMS PRODUCING LCLY HVY RAIN. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING IN OUR
E-CNTRL AREAS...WITH 30-50 PCT ELSEWHERE.

HARD TO GET A FIRM HANDLE AT THIS POINT ON POP POTENTIAL FM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH NEBULOUS LOOKING PTN...AS A RESULT
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHC CATEGORY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EXTENDED FORECAST CYCLE ALTHOUGH GFS AND 0Z
MRF HAVE BOTH FLIPPED SOME IN THE DETAILS OF EXTENDED WEATHER. 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO AFFECT KENTUCKY
ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS POORLY RESOLVED AND IT QUICKLY
RETREATS SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF LATE THURSDAY TO
EARLY SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR DRY WEATHER. BY LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY THE 0Z MRF SUGGESTS WAA PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO IN RESPONSE TO TEXAS LOW PRESSURE. FOR
NOW WE WILL AVOID A FLOPPING FORECAST AND KEEP THE ENTIRE PERIOD DRY
ALTHOUGH BASED ON LATER MODEL DATA...MAY NEED TO ADD POPS TO NEXT
WEEKEND. NO REAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED TEMPS EITHER WITH NEAR CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LMK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND A
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

STUREY/JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY...AND WILL
HAVE THE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN
ADDITION...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND UNDERPASSES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JB