Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1040 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE PUBLIC SUITE TO REFLECT 50 PERCENT
POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT 40 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST IN LIGHT
OF RECENT TRENDS. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT AS MOST OF THE
AREA CLOSING IN ON 80 ALREADY.

VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH HIGHER THAN MODEL INITIALIZED
DEWPOINTS. MCV INDUCED CONVECTION LIKELY A HANGOVER FROM YESTERDAYS
ACTIVITY THAT MOVED OUT OF EAST TEXAS. THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING ALONG
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IS SHOWING A RIGHT MOVING TENDENCY
LATELY. WEAK ENVIROMENTAL INFLOW BUT STORM APPEARS TO BE CREATING
ITS OWN WITH ITS DEVIANT MOVEMENT NEARLY 90 DEGREES RIGHT OF MEAN
FLOW. HAVE ISSUED ONE WARNING AND IN PROCESS OF RE-ISSUING AT THIS
TIME BUT QUERIES FROM THE PARISHES JUST REVEAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
WIND. THIS COULD CHANGE AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ALSO
NOTING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT NEAR MAUREPAS TO BECOME INVOLVED WITH
MCS.

RICKS INDEX USING 330K LIFTED FROM 850 MB YIELDS A VALUE OF
52...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BUT LIGHT ON SEVERE THREAT. GUST POTENTIAL
14-24KT...NO HAIL...NO TORNADOES. PCPN 3.42...POTL 4.66...FMAP
1.13. DO AGREE ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT OBVIOUSLY THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY TO MAINTAIN CURRENT CONVECTION.
VIL OF THE DAY IS 56 KG/M2. CURRENT SEVERE TSTM MOVING INTO SW ST
HELENA PARISH HAS BEEN AS HIGH AS 58 (GRID BASED) / 62 (CELL BASED)
WITH A DEEP ELEVATED MESOCYCLONE INDICATED.

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

24

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA LEADING INTO SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES AND GULF COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVATION THOUGH MAY BE REQUESTED
FOR SUNDAY SHOULD THE SITUATION WARRANT.