Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
135 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH THE OVERALL
REGIME TRANSITIONING MORE INTO A WET PATTERN. THE FOCUS FOR TODAY
WILL CENTER AROUND A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
SETTLING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. NOT EXPECTING
A TREMENDOUS SURGE INITIALLY WITH THIS FRONT SO THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
STALL SOMEWHERE IN THIS AREA. NEVERTHELESS...AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGINNING
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD WARRANT THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY. THE FOCUS BECOMES MORE INTENSE ON SUNDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. IN ADDITION...BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR POCKETS BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. GREATER INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND WIND PROFILES
ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ROTATING TSTMS
ON SUNDAY AS THESE EVENTS UNFOLD. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. CHANCE FOR RAIN THOUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER SOUTHEAST PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
LIFT FOR SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP. STARTING WEDNESDAY THOUGH LOOKS
CLEAR AS THE TROF AXIS EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE RETURNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MCB 077/063/079/065 3164  BTR 078/065/080/067 3164
MSY 078/065/080/067 4165  GPT 076/067/076/068 4165

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA LEADING INTO SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES AND GULF COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVATION THOUGH MAY BE REQUESTED
FOR SUNDAY SHOULD THE SITUATION WARRANT.