Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

SOME VERY ACTIVE WEATHER GETTING READY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS DETACHED WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AROUND 500Z. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS HAS THIS
LINE SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE LINGERING S/W FOLLOWING SUIT KEEPING RAIN IN PLAY
MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE S/W CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
THOUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH AS IS FOR NOW AS MUCH
OF THE EMPHASIS AND DETAIL IS REQUIRED IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 77/51/65/42 94-0  BTR 80/53/67/43 94-0
MSY 80/60/69/51 85-0  GPT 77/55/68/45 85-0

CORRECTED FFA ZONES IN LA

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...KPQL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY OUT 60 NM
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056-057 THROUGH 430 PM.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080>082 THROUGH 430 PM.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-181700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL COME FROM A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP FROM
STORMS THAT FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...FLASH FLOODING...
LOCAL TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM TOTALS AROUND
THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL ALSO LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN
AND NEAR CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. ALL FIRST RESPONSE AGENCIES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS UNFOLDING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION.