Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
300 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

SOME VERY ACTIVE WEATHER GETTING READY TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS DETACHED WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AROUND 500Z. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS HAS THIS
LINE SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE LINGERING S/W FOLLOWING SUIT KEEPING RAIN IN PLAY
MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE S/W CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
THOUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH AS IS FOR NOW AS MUCH
OF THE EMPHASIS AND DETAIL IS REQUIRED IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 77/51/65/42 94-0  BTR 80/53/67/43 94-0
MSY 80/60/69/51 85-0  GPT 77/55/68/45 85-0

CORRECTED FFA ZONES IN LA

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...KPQL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY OUT 60 NM
LA...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056-057 THROUGH 430 PM.
MS...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080>082 THROUGH 430 PM.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-181130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTH AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT AND ENTER EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 4 AM AND DAYBREAK. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
DEVELOP FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL
LINE. MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE EAST AT 30 MPH WITH SOME
ACCELERATION LIKELY AFTER 3 AM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE TIDAL LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...

THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AT AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE NOON AND
MOVE INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...
IS BEING REQUESTED FOR THE GREATER BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB AREAS FOR
4 AM...THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AND NORTHSHORE AREAS BY 7 AM AND
THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COASTAL COMMUNITIES BY NOON. ALL FIRST RESPONSE
AGENCIES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS UNFOLDING SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION OVERNIGHT.

24