Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THERE ARE TWO FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY:
THE FIRST OF COURSE IS THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
THURSDAY THE SECOND IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLING WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.

...18Z SYNOPSIS...
     THE SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY HAD MOVED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT ONEILL THROUGH BROKEN BOW AND NORTH PLATTE
TO IMPERIAL. DEWPOINTS AOA 70F WERE ALONG AND A LITTLE NORTHWEST OF
THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER DRY BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH SEEMED TO PIVOT ABOUT A POINT
NEAR OGALLALA AROUND A CIRCULATION NEAR THE TOP OF THE PLANETARY
BOUNDARY LAYER.
...MODELS...
     THIS MORNINGS ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR THIS MORNING, AND BOTH
ARE SHOWING DECENT CONTINUITY BETWEEN RUNS.

...FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
     CONVECTION COULD FIRE JUST ABOUT ANY TIME NOW. GENERALLY WENT
WITH ETA AVN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
     TURNING TO TONIGHT...THE WATCH HAS PRETTY WELL DONE THE
FORECAST FOR ME. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE PIVOTING ABOUT
THE CIRCULATION, WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE 70F DEWPOINT
LINE GOING WITH IT. AT THE SAME TIME, DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY FIRE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
IMPERIAL TO CURTIS. IN FACT THE WHOLE SCENARIO IS AN AWFUL LOT LIKE
YESTERDAYS. WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AND THE HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK, I WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO THERE SOUTHWEST TO NORTH PLATTE, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTH WERE NOT REAL HIGH BECAUSE OF THE FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT.
     THE RUC SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION WELL YESTERDAY. FOR NOW,
IT APPEARS THAT THE RUC IS DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
(AS IT SHOULD), SO I WILL BLEND THE RUC WITH THE ETA FOR TONIGHTS
FORECAST END OF PRECIPITATION.

...EXTENDED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
     THE 24/00Z MEDIUM RANGE GFS SHOWS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
23/00Z CYCLE IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CONSISTENCY IS ENCOURAGING AND AIDS MY LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION.
     THE FRONT BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND THE GULF FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. IT GETS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM A TROUGH. SO, I HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT
TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.LBF...FLOOD WATCH 005>010

SPRINGER

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
ONCE AGAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO AND OVER 60 MPH. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARTHUR TO MULLEN TO AINSWORTH AND
SPRINGVIEW WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE INITIATION POINT FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH STRONG TURNING OF THE WINDS
FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE TO WEST ALOFT...MAY ALSO AID
IN ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT) FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
61...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 23 AN INTERSTATE 80. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 91...EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED EACH
DAY SINCE SUNDAY.  FLOODING OCCURRED IN VALENTINE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY...KEYA PAHA...BOYD...
BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES.  INDICATIONS ARE VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS SOME AREAS ALREADY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 AM    CRESCENT LAKE NWR         NE   0.88 IN HAIL
06/24/03   GARDEN                         COR

CAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0514 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    1 NW WELLFLEET            NE   1.75 IN HAIL
06/24/03   LINCOLN

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0533 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    12 S NORTH PLATTE         NE   0.88 IN HAIL
06/24/03   LINCOLN

JC