Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
215 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THERE ARE TWO FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY:
THE FIRST OF COURSE IS THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
THURSDAY THE SECOND IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOLING WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY.

...18Z SYNOPSIS...
     SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES. THE MSL PRESSURE SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW TO
BE SOUTH OF MCCOOK AND BETWEEN GLD AND HLC. THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO RUN FROM JUST WEST OF HURON AND AINSWORTH THROUGH OGALLALA
TO JUST EAST OF GOODLAND. THAT FEATURE IS A DEWPOINT/TEMPERATURE
BOUNDARY WITH 65/55 WEST OF THE BOUNDARY COMPARED TO 80/65 IN THE
WARMER AIR EAST OF IT. SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG WERE
INDICATED IN THE LAPS DATA SOUTH AND EAST OF LBF-IML. THE 18Z LBF
SOUNDING HAS 2600 J/KG CAPE AND -7.8C LI. HOWEVER, THE CAP STRENGTH
IS AOA 88F. THE GOES DPI OF LI AND TPW INDICATES THAT THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE NORTH PLATTE
FORECAST AREA.

...MODELS...
     THIS MORNINGS 12Z ETA SHOWS VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE
23/00Z CYCLE. ALSO, THE ETA AND GFS FROM THIS MORNINGS RUN ARE
MUTUALLY SUPPORTIVE WITH POSITIONS OF THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO, I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ETA AND CURRENT
CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND USE THE ETA AND GFS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

...FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
     JUDGING FROM THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AREAS, I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN OR
SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF MRR-LBF. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN A
LOW OF RAIN SO, I WILL KEEP STRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THAT LINE.
ALSO, WILL GO WITH FFA FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
     FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, I WILL GO PRETTY MUCH WITH
ETA/GFS GUIDANCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR BLENDING WITH OTHER FORECAST
AREAS.
     LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, THE ETA AND THE 12Z GFS MOS
SHOWS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, WHILE THE NGM MOS SHOWS 60S
AND 70S. BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS INDICATE EXTREME 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGES. THEY RANGE FROM -3F NORTHWEST BY THE ETA TO -40F
IN THE SOUTHEAST THE GFS INDICATES -4F NORTHWEST TO -30 SOUTHEAST.
THAT IS EVEN MORE EXTREME THAN THE MOS WOULD INDICATE. SO, I WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE THREE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 WITH POSSIBLY SOME 50S IN THE NORTHEAST.

...EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
     THE 23/00Z MEDIUM RANGE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM THE 22/00Z RUN. THIS
HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS WELL. THE 22/12Z
ECMWF IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE 21/12Z RUN AND IT LENDS SOME
SUPPORT TO THE 23/00Z GFS. AS A RESULT, I HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GFS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
     THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
USHER IN A DRY PERIOD THAT SHOULD LAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO BRING GULF MOISTURE TO THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN. THIS
SHOULD HELP REBUILD THE HIGH PLAINS THETA-E RIDGE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH. THAT WOULD JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

.LBF...FLOOD WATCH 006-007-009-010.

SPRINGER

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-241030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD MAINTAINED TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
ON SUNDAY...A VIOLENT TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THAYER COUNTY NEBRASKA
PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND ONE FATALITY.  ALSO...OVER A FOOT OF
RAIN FELL PRODUCING EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND EVACUATIONS.

THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT.  VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY MEASURED 6 AND 1/2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND THIS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TORNADIC STORMS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS
UNCERTAIN SO A HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER HAS ENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED.  THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  A
HIGH STATE OF READINESS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON COULD BE EXPLOSIVE WITH STORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE HOWEVER WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTER 2 PM
CDT.

POWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0842 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    5 SE ONEILL              NE   3.00 IN HAIL
06/23/03   HOLT                           GREATER THAN 3 INCHES

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0847 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 PM    8 E ONEILL               NE   1.75 IN HAIL
06/23/03   HOLT

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0919 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 PM    16 SE STOCKVILLE          NE   1.75 IN HAIL
06/23/03   FRONTIER

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
0929 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 PM    2 SE PAGE                 NE   1.00 IN HAIL
06/23/03   HOLT

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1023 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1015 PM    5 NE HAYES CENTER         NE   0.75 IN HAIL
06/23/03   HAYES

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1025 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1010 PM    6 SSE ENDERS              NE   0.75 IN HAIL
06/23/03   CHASE

JC