Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

SPC HAS ISSUED WATCH BOX 881 FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. ZONES WILL BE
UPDATED SHORTLY.

.JKL...NONE.

RAY/MORAN
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PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

WITH COLD FRONT STILL LOCATED IN OHIO AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND
WITH PRECIP FALLING OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WILL ADJUST SKY COVER
UP AND DROP TEMPS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND MID
80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE A WATCH FROM SPC MAY BE ISSUED...WILL
UPDATE WHEN NECESSARY ...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

RAY/MORAN
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510 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

STILL ONE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH...A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THERE ARE MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT. IT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTERS AROUND INITIATION. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 70S AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO
START THE DAY. ALL MODELS DEPICT AT LEAST MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN IN/OH
WILL LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH...AND THE FRONT ITSELF
WILL BE CLOSE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SINGLE STRONG
FACTOR...THINK THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
TODAY. THE CHANCE HOLDS OVER INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS THE AREA THAT WILL BE LAST
TO SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE STABILIZATION.

THE ETA IS SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE NGM IS IN BETWEEN...BUT HAS
SLOWED SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CAN NOT COUNT ON THE
FRONT BEING OUT OF HERE BY START OF 3RD PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND THIS...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FLATTENS AND MOVES EASTWARD EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE GFS AT MIDWEEK. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER
POPS THAN THE PREVIOUS AT MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS MORE COMPLETELY AND DECIDE IF PRECIP
NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

FOR TEMPS...THINK THAT THE NGM MOS IS A LITTLE TOO WARM TODAY.
SUSPECT THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BEFORE
WE MAKE IT TO THE NGM NUMBERS...AND AN ETA/GFS MOS COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED. IN OTHER PERIODS A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IS PREFERRED.

HAL

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
254 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WITH ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR FLOODING.

HAL/OUDEMAN/RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
1026 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1012 AM    MOREHEAD                  KY   .75 INCH HAIL
08/22/03   ROWAN                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
118 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 PM    FLEMINGSBURG              KY   WIND DAMAGE
08/22/03   FLEMING                        LARGE LIMBS AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          DISPATCH.

RAY