Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

STILL ONE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTEND WITH...A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT
THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THERE ARE MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT. IT SHOULD ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS CENTERS AROUND INITIATION. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOWER 70S AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO
START THE DAY. ALL MODELS DEPICT AT LEAST MEAGER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT SOME POINT TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN IN/OH
WILL LEAVE BEHIND BOUNDARIES TO OUR NORTH...AND THE FRONT ITSELF
WILL BE CLOSE BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SINGLE STRONG
FACTOR...THINK THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS WARRANTS HIGH CHANCE POPS
TODAY. THE CHANCE HOLDS OVER INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS THE AREA THAT WILL BE LAST
TO SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE STABILIZATION.

THE ETA IS SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND THE GFS THE FASTEST. THE NGM IS IN BETWEEN...BUT HAS
SLOWED SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...CAN NOT COUNT ON THE
FRONT BEING OUT OF HERE BY START OF 3RD PERIOD...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND THIS...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS FLATTENS AND MOVES EASTWARD EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE GFS AT MIDWEEK. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER
POPS THAN THE PREVIOUS AT MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THIS MORE COMPLETELY AND DECIDE IF PRECIP
NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

FOR TEMPS...THINK THAT THE NGM MOS IS A LITTLE TOO WARM TODAY.
SUSPECT THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION BEFORE
WE MAKE IT TO THE NGM NUMBERS...AND AN ETA/GFS MOS COMPROMISE IS
PREFERRED. IN OTHER PERIODS A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IS PREFERRED.

.JKL...NONE.

HAL

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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1010 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. FEEL THIS IS PROBABLY WARRANTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT
INSTABILITY STILL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE EVENING...JUST AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY EVENING...WHEN SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. ZONES OUT.

COREY

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325 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES COLD FRONT DANGLING FROM SE WISCONSIN BACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OUT
AHEAD OF IT AS DEPICTED ON THE W/V AND I/R SAT PICS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DOTTING THE AREA...AS 850 MB
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN COMBINING FORCES TODAY. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
EVENING AFTERWARDS AS WE AWAIT FRONTAL AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT A VERY PERSISTENT FORECAST GOING AS MODELS
CONTINUE DECENT AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.
HAVE KEPT GOOD CHANCE POPS GOING...HOWEVER WILL USE MAINLY AFTERNOON
WORDING AS CURRENT TRENDS SHOWING JUST A HAIR SLOWER PROGRESSION.
WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH TEMPS AND SKY WORDING
TOMORROW...AS PARTLY SUNNY AND A FEW 90 DEGREE TEMPS SHOULDNT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECASTS MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER THIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND REFLECTIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS...WITH SOME PLEASANT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENGAGES.

GEOGERIAN

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WITH ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR FLOODING.

HAL/OUDEMAN