Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

BUSY SHIFT...AFD SHORT AND LATE.

BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING...RIVER
FLOODING...AND ICE STORM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.

A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS AT ROUGHLY THE 850 MB LEVEL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS BEING EJECTED FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS
MOVING EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES WILL BE
RAMPANT IN THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS.  FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO
HELP TRIGGER MORE HEAVY RAIN.   THIS RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVE AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  BIG PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD AIR
INTRUSION WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING AT 850
MB.

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT
VERNON...TO JACKSON...TO PIKEVILLE.

HEINLEIN

=====================================================================
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

415 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A WARM FRONT
FROM THE LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A LARGE SWATH OF RAINS. ON SATELLITE...A
LARGE MASS OF THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING OVER KENTUCKY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ON THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THE NEAREST RAIN
FROM THIS IS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE LONGER IT TAKES TO GET HERE
THE BETTER CHANCE WE HAVE OF DAYLIGHT PULLING TEMPS UP ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE LOCATIONS
MOST UNDER THE GUN FOR THIS WINTRY START TO THE RAIN WILL BE OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AS THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THEM FIRST. THIS
IS THE LEADING EDGE OF WHAT MAY WELL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM OF
THIS WINTER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT CONTINUING THERE SOLUTION OF
A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BROAD BUT SHARPENING TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW THEN FOLLOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

DIFFERENCES REALLY ARE FOUND AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 00Z
MESOETA HAS COME IN WITH A METEOROLOGICAL ARMAGEDDON FOR EAST
KENTUCKY OF HEAVY...FLOODING...RAINS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT ICING
EVENT FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE AVN IS MORE MILD MANNERED...
STILL PREDICTING THE HEAVY RAIN BUT WITH WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES LIMITING THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO A SMALLER
AMOUNT OF TIME SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...ITS EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN WAVES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE SFC FEATURES KEEPS THE
HEAVIEST RAINS AFTER SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH IN THE WARMER AIR. A
QUICK GLANCE AT THE 06Z MESOETA INDICATES THAT IT IS COMING WARMER
THAN THE 00Z RUN AND MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE AVN. ACCORDINGLY...
WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS
MORNING BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLENTY
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A 65+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL COMBINE TO
SURGE HIGH PW AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE
LIFTED OVER THE WARM FRONT AS IT GOES STATIONARY THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL ENSUE
WITH FLOODING A DISTINCT CONCERN. EVEN SOME SNOW MELT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROBLEMS AS BLACK MOUNTAIN REPORTED OVER AN INCH
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN ITS SNOWPACK THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AND UPDATE IT
THIS MORNING. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT
OF QPF THAT FALLS WITH THE AVN LIGHTER. THEY ALSO DISAGREE WITH THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE AVN/S LOW LEVEL TEMPS BUT GO HEAVIER WITH THE QPF AS THE
MESOETA/S SFC PATTERN IS MORE REASONABLE. ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL
BE ONLY MADE WORSE BY THE ADDITIONAL RAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MUCH OF THIS RAIN COULD
FALL INTO A COLD AIR MASS AND BECOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS CONCERN IN THE WO THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

AS FOR IFPS/GFE REPOPULATED WITH THE 00Z MESOETA TEMPS/DEWS AND
WINDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. HAD TO MASSAGE THESE...BLENDING WITH THE
WARMER AVN TEMPS. TURNS OUT THIS WAS A GOOD IDEA AS THE 06Z MESOETA
IS COMING IN WARMER. FINE TUNED TEMP AND WX DETAILS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WILL LIKELY BE TINKERING WITH THESE RIGHT UP TO
ISSUANCE TIME.

MOS NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR FROM ALL THREE SOURCES THROUGH 48 HOURS.
STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF AN EARLY LOW TONIGHT AND RISING TEMPS SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER 48 HOURS JUST KNOCKED
DOWN THE MAV NUMBERS A TAD BLENDING WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC
TEMPS PREDICTED BY THE MESOETA.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO LONG.
UPDATES TO THE FFAJKL AND A NEW SDFHWOJKL HIGHLIGHTING THE FLOODING
RAINS AND THEN THE ICE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
BE ISSUED BY 6 AM. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION CALLS ILN AND LMK...
ALSO THE CHATTERS AT 12 PLANET.

PRELIMINARY CCFS:
LOZ 047/040 045/034 037 +++
JKL 045/038 041/032 035 +++

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON FOR ALL
ZONES.

GREIF

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ICE ACCUMULATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES FALLING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL RANGE FROM 1 AND 1/2 TO 2 AND 1/2 INCHES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. FLOODING IS
STILL POSSIBLE FOR CREEKS...STREAMS AND EVEN MAJOR WATERWAYS IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...RAINFALL...SNOWFALL OR FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1107 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1048 PM    DORTHAE                   KY   FLASH FLOOD
02/14/03   LAUREL                         WATER OVER HWY 312 AT
                                          INTERSECTION OF I75. WATER
                                          ALSO OVER ROADS AT LILY,
                                          AND FARISTON.

DBS