Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

CURRENTLY...SVR WX ADVANCING NE ACRS OUR WESTERN GA ZONES IN VC OF
THE RRQ OF A 35-45KT LOW LVL JET AND IN ADVANCE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVING THRU THE FL PANHANDLE. NICKEL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. KJAX 12Z RAOB AND LATEST WV
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE HAZARDS ACRS
THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG DIVERGENCE AT 300 MB.
MESOETA HELICITIES INCREASED TO NEAR 220 M2/S2 ACRS SE GA 18Z TODAY
AND ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN STORMS. TORNADO WATCH #65 CONTINUES
FOR THE GA ZONES UNTIL 3 PM TODAY...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK THRU 12Z FRI MORNING. TEMPS ARE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S
WITH DEW PTS IN THE LWR 70S. THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
TRYING TO ADVANCE INLAND...BUT STRONG WSW WINDS ARE PINNIG IT ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOWS TO INTERACT THIS
AFTN...IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

SHORT TERM...SVR WX WILL COTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING E THROUGH THE UNSTABLE
CWA...OUTFLOWS EVERYWHERE AND THE LINGERING SEABREEZE FRONT ALONG
THE COAST. WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS NEAR ZFP ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT ANTICIPATE LIKELY POPS AT LEAST FOR THE EARLY EVE HOURS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP TSRA WORDING THRU THE NIGHT...AS
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING IT
THRU THE CWA BY 18Z FRI. ATT LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST AREA OF
INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT S INTO THE FL ZONES FRI WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
REMAINING UNDER SLIGHT RISK. ANOTHER (AND HOPEFULLY THE FINAL) COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA EARLY SAT WITH NW WINDS FUNNELING INTO
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCES IN CENTRAL FL. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER S FL LATE SUN AND MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC OF
SHRA THRU EARLY MON WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA. WED LOOKS LIKE
A FAVORABLE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE DAY WITH WARM SLY OVER THE AREA AS
SFC RIDGE ADVANCES OFFSHORE AND NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TN
VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS WED AFTN THRU THU. TEMPS
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCA BASED ON SEA HEIGHTS AND WILL CONTINUE
HEADLINES THRU FRI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

CCF...
FCSTID =   24
AMG   65  78  51  73 /  70  50  20   0
SSI   65  78  56  73 /  60  60  20   0
JAX   67  82  56  77 /  60  60  20   0
SGJ   67  80  60  77 /  60  60  30   0
GNV   67  83  56  78 /  60  60  20   0
OCF   67  83  56  79 /  60  60  30   0

.JAX...
FL...SCA FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH OUT 60 NM.
GA...TORNADO WATCH #65 THRU 3 PM ALL ZONES.
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BCH OUT 60 NM.

PUBLIC...BROYLES
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL
RADAR...WELSH/SHASHY

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-202000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
910 AM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...
...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.  ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST FLORIDA SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

GAZ133>135-201845-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1255 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BACON...JEFF DAVIS...AND APPLING
THROUGH 145 PM...

AT 1255 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ROCKINGHAM...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
ANOTHER...STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF COFFEE COUNTY INTO BACON
AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND SURRENCY...PINE GROVE AND BAXLEY THROUGH 145 PM EST.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

CARROLL

GAZ136-201830-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM...

AT 104 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ODUM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF APPLING COUNTY
AS WELL. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

CARROLL

GAZ134-202000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BACON COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM...

AT 224 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES WEST OF ALMA...OR ABOUT 11
MILES EAST OF DOUGLAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ALMA THROUGH 300
PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
3 PM.

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE, FL
225 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0942 AM    PEARSON                   GA   .75 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   ATKINSON                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

1240 PM    WILLACOOCHEE              GA   .88 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   ATKINSON                       REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

1250 PM    4 SE DOUGLAS              GA   .88 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   COFFEE                         REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER CALLSIGN KF4WSK

0100 PM    15 SE DOUGLAS             GA   2.75 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   COFFEE                         BASEBALL SIZED HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0115 PM    NICHOLS                   GA   .75 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   COFFEE                         REPORTED BY COUNTY ROAD
                                          DEPARTMENT

0125 PM    ALMA                      GA   TORNADO
03/20/03   BACON                          ROTATING WALL CLOUD
                                          PULLING OTHER CLOUDS INTO
                                          STORM REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

0130 PM    ALMA                      GA   2.75 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   BACON                          BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND
                                          FUNNEL CLOUD. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

0130 PM    PINEY GROVE               GA   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY
CHURCH PASTOR

0155 PM    12 S BAXLEY               GA   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/20/03   APPLING                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT

PTW

GAZ150-151-202015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WARE AND PIERCE THROUGH 315 PM...

AT 248 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WARESBORO...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND WARESBORO AND DIXIE UNION THROUGH 315 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH WARE COUNTY.

SHASHY

GAZ136-202100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 4 PM...

AT 308 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES WEST OF SCREVEN...OR ABOUT 11
MILES NORTH OF PATTERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SCREVEN...BROADHURST...
ODUM...JESUP AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 400 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

SHASHY