Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

SUPERCELL EXITING NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. RECEIVED REPORTS OF HAIL
UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN DIAMETER AND THREE AND HALF INCHES OF RAIN
IN APPLING COUNTY WHEN THE STORM MOVED THROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES WARM FRONT...WHERE THE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN FIRING UP...
FROM NORTH OF BRUNSWICK TO NEAR HAZELHURST. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 11 PM EST. SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN CWA UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNITE. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH OVERNITE (AS COLD FRONT UPSTREAM PUSHES SE) WOULD EXPECT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX TO DECREASE IN OUR NORTH CWA.

MEANWHILE...STORMS HAVE FIRED UP NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP
THE LAST HOUR IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WHILE THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS (VS IN GEORGIA)...THE 00Z
JAX SOUNDING DID SHOW A PW OF 1.63 INCHES...CAPE OF 1585J...AND A LI
OF -8. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DEFINITELY JUICY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL KEEP POPS GOING. THE STORMS NEAR
THE SWAMP WILL MOVE NE AND MAY BECOME STRONG NEXT HOUR OR SO.

MARINE...THE FORECAST IS VERIFYING AND WILL NOT CHANGE IT. THE
CONCERN WILL BE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBILIY SEVERE STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...TORNADO WATCH FOR COFFEE...BACON...APPLING...JEFF DAVIS...
     PIERCE...AND WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM EST.

PP/AS/MZ

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
758 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...BACON...JEFF
DAVIS...AND APPLING...COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 11 PM EST...

...THE TORNADO WATCH NOW INCLUDES WAYNE AND PIERCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 11 PM EST...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AREA RIVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THEIR AREA IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

FLZ025-032-033-200000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
621 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ST JOHNS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
DUVAL COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM...

AT 621 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER SWITZERLAND...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SWITZERLAND...FRUIT
COVE...ORANGE PARK...MANDARIN...BAYARD...AND UNF THROUGH 700 PM EST.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

SHASHY

FLZ025-200030-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
700 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY THROUGH
730 PM...

AT 700 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT CAROLINE...OR
ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYPORT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE
BEACH...MAYPORT...FORT CAROLINE...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND AND TALBOT
ISLAND THROUGH 730 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 MPH AND POSSIBLE PEA
SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

SHASHY

FLZ032-200030-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CLAY COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EST...

AT 705 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSLEY...OR ABOUT
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND KINGSLEY...MIDDLEBURG AND
ASBURY LAKE THROUGH 730 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

PETERSON

GAZ136-200200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
758 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH
9 PM.  AREAS AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE ODUM AND MADRAY SPRINGS. HAIL UP
TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  TAKE SHELTER
IF YOU ARE IN THESE AREAS.

MZ

GAZ136-200200-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED AS THE IT HAS MOVED EAST.
HOWEVER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IN THE MADRAY SPRINGS AREAS
THROUGH 845 PM.  MOVEMENT IS TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

MZ

GAZ136-152-200300-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 PM EST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BRANTLEY AND WAYNE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM EST...

AT 929 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HICKOX...OR ABOUT 6
MILES SOUTH OF NAHUNTA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NAHUNTA...HICKOX...
RAYBON...ATKINSON...HORTENSE...GARDI AND BROADHURST THROUGH 1000 PM
EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

PETERSON