Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

PUBLIC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WHOLE CWA UNTIL
8 PM. AS UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH TO THE GULF...IMPRESSIVE UPPER
DIVERGENT PATTERN COUPLED WITH IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
TO RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PULSE TYPE SEVERE. GOOD AREA OF CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 WHERE MOST STORMS ARE FIRING UP.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THIS AREA (50 TO 60 PCT) THIS EVE.
A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNITE ACROSS INLAND GA. MONDAY...SIMILAR
PATTERN AS TODAY WITH UPPER LOW ENTERING GULF AND STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENT PATTERN AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHEST POPS INLAND (60 PCT) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST.
TUESDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ETA MODEL WHICH KEEPS WEDGE JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA...BUT MOIST SE FLOW RESULTING IN A CHC POPS MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY...COLD APPROACHES FROM THE NW RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY AND STALLS OVER NORTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MRF DEVELOPS WAVE
ALONG FRONT WHICH MAY ENHANCE PRECIP. NOT SURE TO BUY INTO THAT THIS
EARLY...HOWEVER WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA...WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS AN
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
POPS FOR SATURDAY AND A 10 PERCENT POP (SILENT) FOR SUNDAY.

MARINE...NO HEADLINES.

FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG 68 86 66 80 / 60 60 20 50
SSI 71 82 71 79 / 40 50 20 30
JAX 70 86 70 80 / 40 50 20 50
SGJ 72 84 73 80 / 30 40 20 40
GNV 69 90 68 85 / 30 50 30 50
OCF 69 92 68 87 / 30 40 20 50

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PP/JH

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-190000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 413

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...

...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES ABOVE NORMAL...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 413 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND A
COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WEST TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR. STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/HESS

FLZ040-181900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME WESTERN MARION COUNTY
THROUGH 3 PM...

AT 225 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES WEST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES AND ROMEO THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

HESS

GAZ150-181915-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WARE COUNTY THROUGH 315
PM...

AT 248 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES SOUTH OF NEEDHAM...OR ABOUT 13
MILES EAST OF ARGYLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDHAM...WAYCROSS...
WARESBORO...SUNNYSIDE AND DEENWOOD THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

HESS

GAZ134-135-151-181915-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN APPLING AND BACON
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM...

AT 251 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL...OR ABOUT
12 MILES EAST OF ALMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEW LACY...BRISTOL AND
SURRENCY THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

HESS

FLZ031-032-036-181945-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN
BRADFORD AND NORTHEASTERN ALACHUA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM...

AT 308 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
NORTH OF MELROSE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MELROSE...LAKE GENEVA...KEYSTONE
HEIGHTS...WALDO...ORANGE HEIGHTS AND HAMPTON THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

HESS

FLZ037-040-182015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
329 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM...

AT 329 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOG VALLEY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF
INTERLACHEN...NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND ORANGE SPRINGS AND EDGAR. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ALSO LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST MARION
COUNTY NEAR DUNNELLON AND CITRUS SPRINGS. PLEASE TAKE SHELTER IF
LIGHTNING IS IN YOUR AREA.

BROYLES

FLZ020-182030-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
341 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 341 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF
CROSSROADS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWANNEE RIVER STATE
PARK...NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND CROSSROADS AND JENNINGS THROUGH 430 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

BROYLES