Severe Thunderstorm Warning 718, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES ARE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND AREA
SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR PIX SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. LATEST
ANALYSES SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH SHORTWAVE NOTED
ALONG LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL SEE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL WITH TIME AS WESTERLIES SHIFT SLOWLY SWD BUT DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER TX BUT BOUNDARY IS FINALLY SHIFTED NEAR THE NRN MS
BORDER THIS WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO MISSING
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE AND HEAVIER PRECIP COVERAGE POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 92/73/92/73 3232
MEI 92/73/92/72 3232

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281927-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEATING...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

...FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING A STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
4 INCHES. WITH THE GROUND BEING DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...HEAVY
RAIN MAY CAUSE RAPID RUNOFF. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AS
WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...CULVERTS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST. WITH WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.