Severe Thunderstorm Warning 712, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES ARE RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND AREA
SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR PIX SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. LATEST
ANALYSES SHOW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH SHORTWAVE NOTED
ALONG LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL SEE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL WITH TIME AS WESTERLIES SHIFT SLOWLY SWD BUT DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER TX BUT BOUNDARY IS FINALLY SHIFTED NEAR THE NRN MS
BORDER THIS WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO MISSING
MODEL/MOS GUIDANCE AND HEAVIER PRECIP COVERAGE POSSIBLE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 92/73/92/73 3232
MEI 92/73/92/72 3232

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281038-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED
AFTER DARK. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION EACH DAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
UNDER A BROAD RIDGE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FEEDING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SUNDAY OVER
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EITHER
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN VERY TROPICAL AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.