Severe Thunderstorm Warning 655, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS
LOW.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE 500MB PATTERN HAS FINALLY TAKEN PLACE. THE
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA. THIS MEANS
SHORTWAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL TRACK
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA. SINCE THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE TRACKS OF THE SHORTWAVES
AND COMPLEXES...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THOSE AREAS ACCORDINGLY.
THE PROBLEM WITH TODAYS FORECAST IS WHEN THE CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE. AS IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WHEN AND EXACTLY WHERE THE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IS THE QUANDARY. THE AIRMASS
NORTH OF A CROSSETT ARKANSAS TO LEXINGTON TO MERIDIAN LINE WILL NEED
TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE
CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLIER COMPLEX OVER ARKANSAS COULD IMPEDE
DAYTIME HEATING A BIT. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXIST WITHIN THAT AREA...THEY JUST MAY GET
STARTED A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DEFINITELY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CROSSETT TO MERIDIAN LINE.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LINE SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND FUELED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO
CHANGE AND GET A LITTLE FUZZIER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL DISAGREEING GREATLY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AVN IS
FASTER BRINGING A SURFACE LOW EAST ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WEAKER WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THE ETA IS STRONGER
WITH THE 500MB SYSTEM...AND SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE WAVE
EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING. HOWEVER...WITH A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE COMING INTO THE MIX...THE
POP TRENDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN BB 093/072 093/073 092 00424
    BBBBB 071/092 071/093 070/092 070/090 072 43322101022
MEI BB 090/071 092/070 092 00434
    BBBBB 070/092 068/093 067/092 068/091 070 33322101012

32/LISTEMAA

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052048-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO DEKALB. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY.  THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY.	THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1215 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1135 PM    7 SW STARKVILLE           MS   WIND DAMAGE
08/04/03   OKTIBBEHA                      LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON
                                          POWERLINES REPORTED BY
                                          OKTIBBEHA COUNTY EMA.