Severe Thunderstorm Warning 654, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

REMOVED EVENING CONVECTION SRN ZONES AND LEFT THEM DRY FOR THE
NIGHT. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS REST OF FORECAST AREA AS NEXT
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPS OVER NRN AR. DID NOT ADD MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS IN UPDATE ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAY IN PLACE
FOR NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY PREDAWN HOURS
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NE AREAS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN NRN ZONES. INCREASED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY NRN
ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND DECREASED WIND SPEEDS PER LATEST SURFACE
OBS.

****************************************************************

CONVECTION IS GETTING A LITTLE SLOWER START ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LATEST LOOK AT THE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS OUR MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
300MB RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE NOSE OF A JET STREAK MOVING INTO NRN
MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN ACROSS NRN MISSISSIPPI. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED OVER OUR AREA. REFER TO OUR HWO FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL DRIFT
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY ALSO PEG A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND THE
EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT THE GFS MOVES RAPIDLY EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NRN MISSISSIPPI. WL
DOWNPLAY THE LOW BUT GO WITH A GENERAL TROUGH THAT WL RESULT IN
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS PROGGS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTH OVER OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY THAT WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER US AND DRIVE THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.

EXTENDED: FRI-MON THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY. THE GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT
WL OPT FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT AND HOLD POPS IN FOR THE WHOLE AREA
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DEW PT TEMPERATURES LOWERING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AND UPPER 60S SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WL LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF POPS FOR NOW. THE DRY TREND WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS
OVER OUR SE ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND LOUISIANA PARISHES SO HAVE
INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR MONDAY AFTN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN BB 072/090 072/090 072 22342
    BBBBB 092/071 092/071 093/070 092/070 090 44332211102
MEI BB 071/090 071/090 070 22343
    BBBBB 092/070 092/068 093/067 092/068 091 43332211101

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052048-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO DEKALB. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY.  THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY.	THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.