Severe Thunderstorm Warning 583, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GFE GRAPHICS AND ZONES FOR TODAY...MAINLY
FOR CLOUD COVER/TEMPS. STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST DURING EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NW MS SINKS SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES DUE TO MORNING RAOBS WHICH
ARE LOADED WITH 6.8C 7-5H LAPSE RATES...5000J/KG CAPES...-12 LIFTED
INDEXES AND AN APPROACHING 50KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM THE OZARKS
PROGGED BY ETA TO REACH DELTA BETWEEN 21-03Z.

NOTE: THE KDGX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE WITH PARTS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON.

JAN TB 089/071 087/067 091 07563
    TBBBB 069/092 071/092 072/092 072/093 073 2------2222
MEI TB 088/072 087/066 091 07564
    TBBBB 068/091 070/091 072/092 072/093 073 2------2222=

AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231055-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY
THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO
JACKSON TO QUITMAN. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI
BY EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
OVER ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AROUND SUNSET BUT WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO
JACKSON TO MERIDIAN BY MIDNIGHT.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN
HOUR AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING...THEN TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE VERY HUMID AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET STREAM IN UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

...FLOODING...
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WINNSBORO TO JACKSON TO QUITMAN. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO
JACKSON TO MERIDIAN.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT WILL PRODUCE PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.