Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

ON SATELLITE IMAGERY STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CAUSING A LONG
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE
ARKLATX THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SPC HAS REISSUED WATCH FOR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED WEST OF INTERSTATE
55 OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AT MIDNIGHT.
DONT EXPECT THE STORMS TO ENTER THE EASTERN END OF THE WATCH AREA
AROUND ACKERMAN UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS. SO WILL WORD IN A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO ENTER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND 5  AM.
SO HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF MOST OF THE AREA TO BE MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

.JAN...
AR...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

17

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY AND EUPORA MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A NATCHEZ...TO BRANDON...TO
MACON LINE.

DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

...FLOODING...
WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO MACON.  PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.