Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

UPDATED ZONES FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH IN SE AR. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL ZONE GROUPS...PARTICULARLY NE MS WHERE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR SEEMS TO BE LOCKED IN. CLOSELY MONITORING
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LA FOR
THREAT TO SE AR...NE LA AND NW MS ZONES FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN   63  80  53 77 54  80 30 00
MEI   62  80  53 75 53  80 20 00

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT LAZ015-016-023>026.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT MSZ042>066-072>074.

08

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ...TO JACKSON...TO
MERIDIAN.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...FLOODING DOWNPOURS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
TONIGHT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A RISK HERE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI BEFORE DAWN.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.  FOLLOWING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LEFT IN AREAS
EAST OF I-55 TOMORROW TO FUEL ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
ANY STORMS FORMING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD...A FEW STORMS COULD STILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL.  HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT
BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH ANY ACTIVITY FORMING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
WEATHER  DISTURBANCES IN UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INTENSIFY THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
JET FLOW WILL ALSO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG FORCING FROM ACTIVE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DELHI LOUISIANA TO
YAZOO CITY MISSISSIPPI TO DEKALB. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE
PONDING WATER MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WHILE ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE.  AT THIS TIME THE MAIN FLASH
FLOODING RISK WILL TRANSFER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM
COLUMBUS...TO JACKSON...TO NATCHEZ.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI IN THE WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0252 PM    GREENVILLE                MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY WASHINGTON
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
309 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    CROSSETT                  AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   ASHLEY                         PUBLIC REPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0307 PM    COLLINSVILLE              MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   LAUDERDALE                     REPORTED BY LAUDERDALE
                                          COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    LENA                      MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   LEAKE                          REPORTED BY POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    HOT COFFEE                MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   COVINGTON                      REPORTED BY COVINGTON
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 PM    PHILADELPHIA              MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   NESHOBA                        REPORTED BY NESHOBA
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.