Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER KS WITH DRY AIR BEING
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THE LOW FINALLY WEAKENING AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AND KEEP THE WEEKEND PLEASANT WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BASED ON DPTS
FRONT SEEMS TO STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL MS. DPTS OVER NORTHEAST WERE
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE BEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY BASED
ON MSAS/LAPS ANALYSIS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. VWP SHOWED SPEED SHEAR AND SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR 3K AND BELOW. RUC SHOWS 850/500MB WINDS FROM SW
AND SURFACE WINDS WERE SE...STILL EXPECTING ROTATING STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AVN SHOWS THE BEST SOLUTION...NOW SHOWING A SECOND
BOUNDARY FORMING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SIMILAR TO ETA. WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NE TX-CENTRAL AR-SOUTHERN MO ALREADY...
THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AROUND HGX EARLIER SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.
RUC 500MB WINDS WERE WEST-SOUTHWEST...SUSPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR TONIGHT...
BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DROPPING AT LEAST INCH AN HOUR AND TRAINING DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS...EXPECT SOME FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. WILL DEFINITELY
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD
WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON
POPS FOR TONIGHT.

THE GFS SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. WILL NOT ADD PRECIP TO THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN   63  80  53 77 54  80 30 00
MEI   62  80  53 75 53  80 20 00
.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT LAZ015-016-023>026.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT MSZ042>066-072>074.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO MERIDIAN. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER RISK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FORCED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
WEATHER  DISTURBANCES IN UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INTENSIFY THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
JET FLOW WILL ALSO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AND STRONG FORCING FROM ACTIVE WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA... SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DELHI LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY MISSISSIPPI TO
DEKALB. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WHERE PONDING WATER MAY OCCUR ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI IN THE WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HAZLEHURST TO QUITMAN.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND UNSTABLE...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAZLEHURST TO QUITMAN.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL END FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DRAGS EAST OF THE AREA.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1000 AM    FERRIDAY                  LA   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   CONCORDIA                      REPORTED BY POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1210 PM    2 S RAYMOND               MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   HINDS                          COVERING THE GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY HINDS COUNTY
                                          EMA.

1212 PM    RAYMOND                   MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   HINDS                          REPORTED BY POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1210 PM    4 SE JACKSON              MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   HINDS                          REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.