Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST DIFFICULTIES INVOLVE BOUNDARY POSITIONS...ESPECIALLY
THRU NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EFFECTS ON STRONG CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PERCHED ACROSS SRN THIRD OF FA WHILE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE LA INTO NE MS. WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
INTO OHIO WHILE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AROUND 1.5 INCHES CENTRAL/SRN MS. ETA HITS MSTR
HARDEST MAINTAINING DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S THRU THE DAY. MODELS AGREE
ON INCRG UPR DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF STRONG UPPER JET CORE. 850 MB JET DIMINISHES TODAY AND
BECOMES MORE WLY BUT AMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH DECENT CAPE AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND RESPECTABLE SHEAR. WILL ADD MENTION OF A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE SRN AREAS TODAY.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO SRN LA/MS TONIGHT AS STALLED BOUNDARY HANGS
ACROSS S AND E MS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SECTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS AND 850 MB FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
SLY S OF THE BOUNDARY. AREA REMAINS IN STRONG UPPER DIV AS JET CORE
INTENSIFIES TO THE N. AMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SE.

BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SE CORNER OF MS TUE MRNG AND FINALLY
SHIFTS EWD TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISHING MOISTURE FROM THE NW
ALTHO ETA HOLDS ONTO HIGHER DEWPTS LONGER SE CORNER TUE AFTN. SWLY
850 MB FLOW DECREASES BY 18Z AND CAPE VALUES VERY LIMITED. WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SE ZONES WITH LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

MEAN TROF SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES N AND CENTRAL. ETA MAINTAINS ENOUGH MSTR FOR
LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE EVENING BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS
MID/UPPER LAYERS FINALLY DRY.

WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THRU EXTENDED PERIOD WITH COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MINS...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION SAT THEN LIGHT SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 78/58/65/40 564-
MEI 77/60/66/41 6852

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE
MS...FFA THRU MON AFTN FOR CNTRL AND S MS (MSZ043>046-048>059)

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0654 AM CST MON APR 07 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY MISSISSIPPI TO DEKALB MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INCH SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...FLOODING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INUNDATED AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI... SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO NATCHEZ. WATER
WILL BEGIN TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS OVERNIGHT.

A STALLED FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 AM CDT MON APR 07 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    MERIDIAN                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   LAUDERDALE                     NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN
                                          THROUGHOUT CITY. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC WORKS.

0245 PM    MERIDIAN                  MS   FLOODING
04/06/03   LAUDERDALE                     WIDESPREAD STREET
                                          FLOODING. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC WORKS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 AM CDT MON APR 07 2003

...CORRECTED TIME...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 AM    MERIDIAN                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   LAUDERDALE                     NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN
                                          THROUGHOUT CITY. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC WORKS.

0245 AM    MERIDIAN                  MS   FLOODING
04/06/03   LAUDERDALE                     WIDESPREAD STREET
                                          FLOODING. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC WORKS.