Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

BUSY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AS SUPER CELLS CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL...SEVERE WINDS AND FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS. THE
CURRENT SUPER CELLS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
ENDS BUT RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN SPEED MAX OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
APPROACHING THE AREA. UPSTREAM PROFILERS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE
UPPER 60S WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP FUEL LATER DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO ADDITIONAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
EAST TEXAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT
OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL OHIO BY NOON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA REGION
BY MORNING BUT SLOW AND STALL NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND RIDE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY FINALLY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON POSITION AND TIMING OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL HOLD CLOUD COVER IN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PROVIDING WARM AND DRY WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN 065/079/057/069/042 7372-
MEI 065/079/059/069/043 7572-

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

22

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EAST MISSISSIPPI.  THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
DAMAGE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS.

FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.  THIS LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE RIPE FOR
NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE RISKS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
OR LARGER...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  STRONG STORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO STATION FOR UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PONDING CAN BE
EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS DURING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN.  AREAS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY.	IN ADDITION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE LENDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AREA
WIDE.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
850 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0750 PM    2 NW BROOKHAVEN           MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   LINCOLN                        *** 1 INJ ***
                                          SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES
                                          OVERTURNED. REPORTED BY
                                          HAM RADIO SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    NEWTON                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   NEWTON                         TREES DOWN BETWEEN NEWTON
                                          AND CHURCH. REPORTED BY
                                          HAM RADIO SPOTTER.

0850 PM    JACKSON                   MS   FLOODING
04/06/03   HINDS                          FLOODING AT COUNTRY CLUB
                                          APARTMENTS IN WEST
                                          JACKSON. REPORTED BY HAM
                                          RADIO SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
912 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0837 PM    PRENTISS                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   JEFFERSON DAVIS                TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 42
                                          WEST OF PRENTISS BETWEEN
                                          HEBRON NAD PRENTISS.
                                          REPORTED BY COLUMBIA
                                          CIVIL DEFENSE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 PM    NEW HEBRON                MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/06/03   LAWRENCE                       SEVERAL TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAWRENCE
                                          CIVIL DEFENSE.

0845 PM    NEW HEBRON                MS   0.25 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY LAWRENCE
                                          CIVIL DEFENSE.

0900 PM    RICHLAND                  MS   FLOODING
04/06/03   RANKIN                         HOMES FLOODED AND SEVERAL
                                          STREETS FLOODED. REPORTED
                                          BY RICHLAND POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
944 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    8 NE LAUREL               MS   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   JONES                          REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0945 PM    5 N LAUREL                MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   JONES                          REPORTED BY JONES EOC.