Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO MAINLY INCLUDE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ONLY OTHER CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE MAX TEMPS
IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWFA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER FURTHER ZONE UPDATES FOR MAX
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 007>009-015-016-023>026.
MS FLASH FLOOD WATCH ...40>066-072>074. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHERN MS THROUGH 4 PM.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0603 AM CST SUN APR 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THEY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUDE TO
HAZLEHURST TO MERIDIAN. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS WILL DESTABILIZE. UPPER LEVEL WIND WILL INTENSIFY AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO RESULT IN
STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PONDING CAN BE
EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS DURING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTENSE WIND
FIELDS WILL REDEVELOP. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP LOUISIANA TO YAZOO
CITY MISSISSIPPI TO DEKALB.  THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
062100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
722 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF REGION TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THEY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUDE TO
HAZLEHURST TO MERIDIAN. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS WILL DESTABILIZE. UPPER LEVEL WIND WILL INTENSIFY AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO RESULT IN
STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 AM    TALLULAH                  LA   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   MADISON LA                     REPORTED AT THE TALLULAH
                                          PD. REPORTED BY POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1015 AM    EPPS                      LA   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   WEST CARROLL                   REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.